HomeMy WebLinkAbout042110 Council WorkshopRenton City Council Workshop
Wednesday, April 21, 2010, 1:30-5:00 pm
Merrill Gardens: 104 Burnett Avenue South, Renton, WA 98057
AGENDA
Time I Topic I Discussion Support I
5 minutes I Introductions & Overview Council President Persson
Mavor Law
1 hour I Financial Forecast Doug Pedersen
• Regional overview Iwen Wang
• 2010-2011 Look -ahead
1 hour Capital project priorities & funding options Iwen Wang
• Overview of Purpose and interrelation of CIP and Alex Pietsch
Capital Facilities Element of Comp Plan Terry Higashiyama
• Overview of existing Capital Improvement Plan
(CIP) project list and identified funding
• Review of Projects Identified through other
Adopted Plans
• Prioritization and Implementation Process —next
step
1 hour Library Facilities Alex Pietsch
• KCLS Parameters
• Sunset Area Considerations
• Downtown area Considerations
• Funding Considerations
30 minutes Fire Authority Financial Analysis [wen Wang
• Review of analysis Mark Peterson
• Administration recommendation
• Council discussion and guidance
15 minutes Fire District #37 and Fairwood Annexation Service Area Mark Peterson
Iwen Wang
Deferred to April 26th Committee of the Whole
45 minutes 2011-2016 Business Plan
• Council discussion: final changes Marty Wine
• Capitalize on the diversity of the community to Alex Pietsch
provide better services and build stronger
neighborhoods and community
• Refer to Council with resolution
5 pm I Next Steps I Council President Persson
COUNCIL WORKSHOP
MEETING DATE APRIL 21, 2010
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FORECAST AND COMMENTARY BY DICK CONWAY AND DOUG PEDERSEN Volume 18
Are We There Yet?
Regional
At the end of a recession, when the economy is in flux, numbers can
Outlook
get squirrely. In February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics had to
lower its estimate of national employment by 1.1 million jobs (0.8 per-
An eye on the nation.
cent). It turned out that recent job losses were significantly greater
If we had to describe the behav-
than we had been led to believe.
for of the regional economy in one
In March, after a recount of corporate officers, Washington Employ-
sentence, it would go something
ment Security Department (ESD) reduced its estimate of state employ-
like this: the ups and downs of the
ment by 10,000 jobs (0.3 percent). We suspect that over the next few
Puget Sound and U.S. economies
months the reported job estimates for the Puget Sound region will be
are highly correlated, because the
knocked down
nation is the largest market for the
region's exports. This is evident in
a notch two. Summary Forecast
the fact that if we have a good fore-
Keepingg Annual Percent Change
cast for the nation, we can develop
in mind the 2008 2009 2010 2011
reasonably accurate predictions
shakiness of Puget Sound Region
for the region (see the December
preliminary job
2009 Special Topic).
Employment 0.9 -4.2 -0.5 1.9
estimates, there
A corollary of this assertion is
Personal income (cur. $) 3.8 -1.3 3.7 4.5
was potentially
that the national economy in -
Y
Consumer price index 4.3 0.6 0.9 1.8
good news in
variablyplays a role in regional
P Y g
Housing permits -42.7 -50.4 22.2 31.7
ESD's March
recessions. Ironically, the 1969-71
Population 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.8
labor report.
Boeing Bust, the worst regional
After adding United States*
recession since the Great Depres-
2,900 jobs in GDP ($05) 0.4 -2.4 3.1 3.0
sion, was triggered by one of the
Employment -0.6 -4.3 -0.5 1.7
nation's shallowest downturns.
December, the
Personal income (cur. $) 2.9 -1.4 3.6 4.5
Real Gross Domestic Product
regional eCOn- Consumer price index 3.8 -0.3 2.3 2.0
1 (GDP) fell only 0.6 percent over a
omy created Housing starts -32.9 -38.7 28.6 35.2
two -quarter period, but the dis-
another 7,900
ruption in economic activity was
jobs in January. 'Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators
great enough to halt growth in air
If these figures
travel and dry up orders for new
hold up, they will represent the first hard evidence that the regional
airplanes.
recession is finally calling it quits.
The current recession is differ -
Our forecast, which was prepared in February, calls for an upturn in
ent in two important respects.
regional employment in the first quarter of 2010. Over the course of
First, it has been caused by a
the year, employment is expected to increase 1.2 percent. The annual
collapse of the housing and creditmarkets,
rate of job growth will then accelerate, climbing to 2.8
rather
percent by the end of 2011. Retail Sales
than a fall in the
4 _ demand for the
While the recession may be over, there is much work Construction
5 region's exports.
to be done before the economy recoups its losses. South Carolina 6- Second, because
With 15 million people unemployed, the U.S. economy
- - of the nature of the
finds itself in a deep hole. Our projections indicate Forecast Detail 7 recession, it has
that Puget Sound employment will not return to its Leading Index 8 spread to nearly
pre -recession level until the end of 2012. Even then the INSIDE every corner of
jobless rate will register a disappointing 7.3 percent.
the country. It is
Number 1
March
2010
THE PL'GET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
Regional Outlook
always good practice in regional
forecasting to keep an eye on the
nation. But it is especially impor-
tant now, since whatever happens
elsewhere is likely to happen here.
Job woes.
In February, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) painted an exceed-
ingly grim picture of the
national job market when
it lowered its estimate of GD
total employment by 1.1 Ern
million jobs (0.8 percent). Pro
This meant that the
United States lost 900,000
jobs between 2000 and 2009, an
incredible feat given that it created
22.3 million jobs during the 1990s.
In one sense, there is no mystery
to the job loss. Since 2000 the an-
nual rate of economic growth (1.6
percent) has been outpaced by the
rate of labor productivity growth
(1.7 percent). Harder to explain,
even with hindsight, is why these
two trends got so out of whack.
Between 1970 and 2000, real GDP
advanced at a 3.3 percent rate,
while productivity grew at a 1.2
percent rate.
The answer partially lies in the
fact that there were two reces-
sions -the Dot Com Bust and
the Great Recession -within the
nine-year period, an unusual
occurrence. With regard to how
this affected real GDP growth, the
had a hand in spurring the jump
to a higher rate of productivity
growth. The pace of labor produc-
tivity gains had already picked up
because of technological advance-
ments related to the business
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product, Employment,
and Productivity
P (bils. $05)
ployment (mils.)
ductivity ($05/employee)
Annual Percent Change
1970 2000 2009 1970-00 2000-09
4270.0 11226.0 12988.7 3.3 1.6
71.0 131.8 130.9 2.1 -0.1
60141 85175 99226 1.2 1.7
explanation boils down to simple
arithmetic: two downturns equal
a significantly lower long-term
growth rate.
But why were the recessions so
close together? Did the bursting of
the high-tech bubble set the stage
for the housing bubble? And why
did the economy underperform-
expanding at only a 2.6 percent
rate -during the non -recessionary
years? Did federal policy after
the Dot-Com Bust provide nothing
more than a pair of crutches for
the economy?
The two recessions probably
U.S. Recessions
Nov.1973- Jul. 1981- Dec. 2007-
Mar. 1975 Nov.1982 Feb.20101
Recession
Real GDP loss (%)
Employment loss (%)
Unemployment rate peak (%)
Recovery
Real GDP upturn
Real GDP first -year change (%)
Employment upturn
Employment first -year change (%)
Unemployment rate downturn
Unemployment rate first -year change' (%)
' Estimates based on current forecasts.
2Percentage point change.
-3.2
-2.7
-3.8
-2.7
-3.0
-6.0
8.9
10.7
10.2
1975.2
1982.4
2009.3
6.2
5.6
3.4
1975.3
1983.1
2010.1
3.7
3.5
0.8
1975.3
1983.1
2010.2
-1.3
-2.2
-0.7
use of computers, software, the
internet. and telecommunications.
But businesses also endeavored to
sharply cut labor costs in an effort
to remain competitive in the dif-
ficult economic environment.
The squeeze on labor -produc-
ing more output with fewer work-
ers -is a distinct characteristic of
the current recession. Since 1970
there have been two other major
downturns in the U.S. economy,
one in the 1970s and the other
in the1980s. In both cases, real
GDP and employment fell about 3
percent from peak to trough. This
meant that there was little
change in labor productiv-
ity over the course of the
recession: -0.5 percent and
0.3 percent, respectively.
During the Great Reces-
sion, however, real GDP will
decrease 3.8 percent, while
employment will decline
6.0 percent, according to
the latest projections. The
implied labor productivity
gain will be 2.2 percent, an
extraordinary increase dur-
ing a recession.
An economy growing
at half -speed and a surge
in labor productivity
have dug a deep hole for
Page 2 March 2010
THE PUGET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
the job market over the U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product, Employment,
past nine years. Current
and Unemployment Rate
statistics indicate that Annual Percent Change Percent
there are roughly 17 mil-
a
lion people-15 million
6
unemployed and 2 million
discouraged or loosely at-
4
tached to the labor force —
who would like to have
2
a job. There are another
0
9 million working people
who are looking for a full-
-2
time job. Ten years ago,
analysts predicted that
-4
the U.S. economy would
6
create 16 million new jobs
between 2000 and 2009. If
8
these jobs had material- 2007.1
ized, they would have gone
a long way in satisfying the
current need of labor.
What is in store for the labor
market now that national output
is expanding again? The answer is
not much, at least in the short run,
because of weak economic growth
and continuing productivity gains.
The principal reasons for the slow
pick-up in economic growth are al-
ready apparent: thrifty consumers,
empty homes and office buildings,
and state and local governments
with their hands out.
Over the course of 2010, real
GDP will rise 2.9 percent, punctuat-
ing the end of the recession. But
the gain will fall well short of the
5 or 6 percent advances experi-
enced in earlier recoveries. At the
same time, labor productivity will
increase 2.1 percent, as employ-
ers continue to find ways to boost
worker output. Consequently,
between the fourth quarter of 2009
and the fourth quarter of 2010,
national employment will increase
only 0.8 percent (1.1 million new
jobs), modestly reducing the un-
employment rate from 10.0 percent
to 9.7 percent.
Between 2010 and 2015, if the
economy manages to stay on
2008.1 2009.1 2010.1 2011.1
Real GDP (1) M Employment (1) — Unemployment rate (r)
track, real GDP will expand at a 3.0
percent rate and jobs will increase
at a 1.7 percent rate. But even at
these rates, U.S. employment will
not return to its pre -recession level
until the second quarter of 2013.
At that time, the unemployment
rate will be 7.4 percent, still three
percentage points above its pre -
recession low.
Bouncing off the bottom.
The outlook for the Puget Sound
economy also calls for an end to
the recession early this year. In the
first half of 2010, employment will
get a sizeable but temporary lift
when some 5,000 census -takers hit
the pavement to count the region's
population. Over the year, employ-
ment is expected to increase 1.2
percent.
The latest data reported by
the Washington Employment
Security Department indicate that
employment is already rising. On
a seasonally -adjusted basis, the
four -county area added 2,900 jobs
in December and 7,900 jobs in Janu-
ary. It is important to note that
these preliminary estimates are
subject to revision.
If these measurements are indeed
reasonably accurate, they convey
two important messages about
the state of the regional economy.
First, it is no longer trailing the
national economy. Second, since
the two -month job gain implies a
healthy 3.8 percent annual growth
rate, the region may recover at
a somewhat faster rate than the
nation.
Our current projections indicate
that the region and the nation will
emerge from the recession at about
the same speed. Based on annual
averages, Puget Sound employment
will decline 0.5 percent in 2010 and
increase 1.9 percent in 2011. The
forecast national job growth rates
are -0.5 percent and 1.7 percent,
respectively. In 2010, nominal per-
sonal income is expected to rise 3.7
percent regionally and 3.6 percent
nationally. In 2011, regional income
will increase 4.5 percent, matching
the national gain.
The fact that the regional and
national economies are expected to
behave in a similar way should not
be surprising. This has been, after
all, a truly national recession.
II
10
9
8
1
6
5
4
3
Page 3 March 2010
THE PVCFT SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
Retail Sales
A new day.
Following an unprecedented de-
cline in 2009, current -dollar Puget
Sound retail spending is expected
to gain traction in 2010. Growth
in retail sales will then accelerate
in 2011 and 2012, as the regional
economy continues to mend. The
path to recovery should be similar
for both retail sales, our estimate
of Puget Sound retail spending
based on monthly national retail
sales reported by the Census
Bureau, and taxable retail sales,
the quarterly series published by
the Washington Department of
Revenue.
Thus, it is a new day for retailers.
According to our latest forecast,
the retail sales growth rate, which
slumped to 4.7 percent last year
(the first ever decline in nominal
terms) will rise to 3.3 percent this
year and then climb to 5.6 percent
by 2012. Similarly, taxable retail
sales, following a 12.3 percent
decline in 2009 (the largest drop on
record), will increase 1.8 percent
this year and then speed up rapidly
reaching an 8.0 percent growth
rate in 2012. The rebound will
be spurred by healthy personal
income growth, increased home-
building, and declining unemploy-
ment. In general, rising interest
rates will have a dampening effect
on retail sales over the next few
years. However, the modest in-
creases in interest rates predicted
in the near term should pose no
problem.
Will the recovery put taxable
retail sales. Puget Sound's largest
tax base, back on its pre -recession
track? When the tax base is ad-
justed for inflation and population
growth, the answer is no, as shown
in the chart. Over the past 35
years. real per capita taxable retail
sales have climbed at a 1.2 percent
annual rate. Economic booms and
busts, however, have pulled actual
22
20
18
16
14
12
Puget Sound Real Per -Capita
Taxable Retail Sales
Thousands of 2005 Dollars
101975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005LLLL' 2010 2015 2020
Actual -- Trend (1.2 percent per year)
taxable sales far above and far
below trend. In the third quarter
of 2009, the gap amounted to a
jaw -dropping -17 percent. Asa
consequence, in spite of above -av-
erage growth in the tax base over
the next five years, real per capita
taxable retail sales will not catch
up to the historical trend line. This
suggests that, absent a sizeable
hike in the tax rate, the retail sales
tax base will not provide the same
long-term funding capability that it
has in the past.
Retall sales (bile. $)
58.164
58.575
58.900
59.541
60.066
60.726
57.892
59.782
62.204
Building materials
3.623
3.747
3.823
3.877
3.959
4.625
3.726
3.938
4.339
Motor vehicles and parts
11.447
11.418
11.344
11.487
11.486
13.258
11.510
11.452
11.656
Furniture and electronics
2.938
2.970
2.963
2.979
3.045
3.384
3.009
3.022
3.200
General merchandise
8.034
8.147
8.245
8.371
8.456
7.972
8.004
8.404
8.799
Food and beverage
7.767
7.780
7.813
7.854
7.900
7.738
7.778
7.878
8.066
Gasoline stations
5.371
5.362
5.375
5.413
5.457
5.064
4.915
5.437
5.631
Clothing and accessories
3.012
3.025
3.046
3.076
3.105
3.095
3.024
3.088
3.204
Food services and drinking
5.813
5.863
5.911
5.973
6.018
5.729
5.797
5.991
6.212
Other retail sales
10.160
10.263
10.380
10.511
10.641
9.860
10.128
10.571
11.098
Taxable retail sales (bils $)
61.870
62.006
62.107
62.850
63.875
71.107
62.335
63.454
67.279
Retail trade
27.084
27.060
27.102
27.368
27.818
29-611
26.926
27.644
29.190
Other taxable sales
34.786
34.946
35.006
35.483
36.057
41.496
35.408
35.811
38.088
Annual growth (% change)
Retail sales
4.9
28
2.2
4.4
3.5
2-0
-4.7
3.3
41
Taxable retail sales
2.3
0.9
0.7
48
6.5
-5.2
-12.3
1 8
6.0
Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted and expressed on an annual
basis
Page 4 March 2010
THE PUGET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
Puget Sound Home Sales and
Housing Affordability
Construction and Real Estate Thousands
Taking stock.
The first task in forecasting is as-
sessing the current condition of the
economy. Now that data have been
published for the fourth quarter,
we can take stock of the housing
market in 2009. Did it behave as
expected? If not, why not? What
does this mean for the future?
In December 2008, the economy
was already in recession. But, like
everyone else, we predicted a shal-
low slump. Puget Sound employ-
ment was forecast to fall about one
percent in 2009, raising the unem-
ployment rate to 6 or 7 percent. In
that environment, the housing mar-
ket was expected to stabilize. After
falling steeply in 2008, home sales,
the average home price, and hous-
ing permits were forecast to reverse
course in the early part of 2009. We
did issue a caution: "We are still pre-
dicting a moderate recession, but
do not bet on any forecast until the
housing market bottoms out."
The prognosis was partly correct.
The housing market did stabilize in
the first half of 2009. On the other
hand, because of a deeper recession
than expected-4 percent employ-
ment loss and a 9 percent jobless
rate -the market fell more than pre-
dicted before hitting bottom. In De-
cember 2008, we forecast that home
sales, which had peaked at 82,500 in
2005, would total 44,900 in 2009. The
actual tally was 39,200. Home prices
averaged $355,700 in 2009, $28,900
less than predicted. Officials issued
only 7,800 housing permits, well
short of the expected 13,200.
While the statistics portrayed
a distressed housing market in
2009, the year was not devoid of
hope. There were three promising
developments. First, the housing
market stabilized despite the reces-
sion's downdraft. Credit the federal
government for lowering mortgage
rates and passing the homebuyer
tax credit. Second, in the latter
Percent
100
90
80
10
60
So
40
30
20
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
- Home sales (1) - Housing affordability* (r)
Mortgage payment as percent of household income
half of 2009, home prices flattened
out, while home sales and housing
permits rebounded smartly, rising
49.3 percent and 32.1 percent,
respectively. Third, because of the
exceptionally low rates of home
sales and housing construction in
recent years, a pent-up demand for
housing continued to build.
Housing activity is unlikely to
bust out in 2010. But all things con-
sidered -an improving economy,
pent-up demand, and affordable
homes -things are looking up.
Housing permits (thous.)
7.4
8.6
8.5
8.6
9.9
15.8
7.8
9.6
126
Single-family
5.8
6.6
6.0
5.8
6.6
6.8
5.3
6.5
8.0
Multi -family
1.6
2.0
2.5
2.8
3.3
8.9
2.5
3.1
4.6
Housing permits (mils. $)
15151
1811.5
1704.5
1710.6
1974.1
2700.4
1492.2
1908.5
2548.2
Single-family
1306.7
1507.5
1397.3
13628
1556.3
1504.1
1208.6
1517.1
1948.5
Multi -family
208.4
304.0
307.1
347.8
417.8
1196.3
283.7
391.4
599.8
Average home price (thous. $)
351.3
351.1
362.5
373.0
380.8
402.9
355.7
375.4
393.2
Active home listings (thous.)
24.5
24.3
23.6
23.8
235
31.7
25.9
23.6
23.6
Home sales (thous.)
41.2
50.9
47.8
45.6
48.2
40.2
39.2
47.8
488
Apartment vacancy rate (%)
7.1
7.6
8.1
7.8
7.5
4.9
7.1
7.7
6.8
Average apartment rent ($)
966
959
956
951
947
987
976
950
944
Annual growth(% change)
Housing permits (mils. $)
78.4
78.2
-23.6
1.4
61.6
42.6
-44.7
279
335
Average home price
-2.6
-0 2
129
11.6
8.3
-5.5
-11.7
5.5
4.7
Average apartment rent
-6.1
-2.9
-1.2
.20
-1.8
7.0
-1.2
-2.7
-0.6
Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted and expressed on an annual basis.
21
20
19
18
II
16
15
�JII 14
13
2011
Page 5 March 2010
THE PUGET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
Special Topic: South Carolina
The adversary.
It is difficult to judge a place that
you have never seen, but South
Carolina sounds like a pleasant
part of the country. The Econo-
mist reports that the second 787
Dreamliner assembly plant is
located outside "the lovely old
city of Charleston." Columbia, the
state's capital, occasionally makes
the list of the nation's most livable
cities.
While South Carolina has a
certain appeal, it is not because
of a robust economy. Historically,
the state has endured middling job
growth, above -average unem-
ployment, and extremely low per
capita income. Between 2000 and
2008, employment expanded at
a 0.4 percent annual rate, much
slower than Washington's 1.2
percent pace. In 2008, the South
Carolina unemployment rate stood
at 6.9 percent, the fifth highest in
the nation. Its per capita income
totaled $32,666, the sixth lowest in
the nation.
The recession has further ag-
gravated economic conditions
in South Carolina, jacking up the
unemployment rate to 12.6 percent
at the end of 2009. Only Michi-
gan (14.3 percent), Nevada (13.0
percent), and Rhode Island (12.9
percent) registered higher rates.
The lackluster performance
of the South Carolina economy
explains the willingness -indeed
eagerness -of local leaders to ten-
der $450 million in tax and other
financial incentives in order to
land the 787 plant. The $750 mil-
lion facility is expected to create
2,000 temporary construction jobs
and 3.800 permanent aircraft jobs.
Taking into account the indirect
economic activity generated by
the plant, the total impact could
amount to 10,000 jobs.
South Carolina and Washington Economic
Characteristics, 2008'
South Carolina Washington
Employment (thous.)
Employment growth rate, 1970-08 (%)
Unemployment rate (%)
Personal income (bits. $)
Per capita income ($)
Per capita Gross Domestic Product ($00)
Average hourly wage rate ($)
State and local taxes, FY 2007 (% of income)
Population (thous.)
Median home price, 2008.42 ($ thous.)
Educational attainment (% with college degree)
Union membership (% of employment)
Percent of total employment
Manufacturing
Information
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
2020.6
3192.3
1.7
2.4
6.9(46)
5.3(25)
146.3
280.7
32666 (45)
42857 (13)
28364 (46)
40407 (13)
17.33
22.32
10.3 (39)
10.9 (26)
4479.8
6549.2
193.8
325.9
23.5 (41)
30.3 (12)
3.9(49)
19.8(4)
12.0
9.1
1.4
3.3
11.1
11.1
10.9
9.0
'Rankings among fifty states and District of Columbia shown in parentheses.
2Home prices for Charleston MSA and Seattle MSA.
What does Boeing stand to gain
by setting up shop 3,000 miles
from its central operations? One
thing is cheap labor. The company
expects to cut payroll costs by 40
percent.
Although South Carolina's low
wage rates are enticing, it is not
clear that they will necessarily
improve Boeing's bottom line. In-
cluding benefits, the pay of assem-
bly workers is a small fraction -
maybe as little as 5 percent -of
the total cost of developing and
manufacturing a 787. Thus, the
potential savings of building a
Dreamliner in South Carolina
instead of Washington amounts to
only two percent of the airplane's
total cost. Moreover, if workers in
North Charleston turn out to be
less productive than their Everett
counterparts -South Carolina
ranked 46th in labor productivity
and 41st in educational attainment
in 2008-the two percent cost sav-
ings could easily evaporate.
The main draw of South Carolina,
a "right to work" state, is the ab-
sence of labor unions. In 2008, only
one out of every twenty-five work-
ers belonged to a union. The state
ranked 49th in union membership,
while Washington ranked 4th.
By locating in South Carolina,
Boeing is effectively creating a
"competitive" two-tier produc-
tion system -low -wage nonunion
workers in South Carolina and
high -wage union workers in Wash-
ington -in an attempt to solve
its longstanding labor problems.
As quoted in The Seattle Times,
Boeing commercial airplane chief
Jim Albaugh said, "We can't afford
to have a work stoppage every
three years. And we can't afford
to continue the rate of escalation
of wages." But the two-tier tactic,
especially if it foments dissension
within the ranks, seems to carry
its own risk.
Page 6 March 2010
THE PUGET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
Employment (thous.)
Goods producing
Natural resources and mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Aerospace
Other durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services producing
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and public utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Other services
Government
State and local
Federal
Unemployment rate (%)
Personal income (bils. $05)
Personal income (bits. $)
Wage and salary disbursements
Other income
Per capita personal income ($)
Consumer price index (82-84= 1000)
Housing permits (thous.)
Population (thous.)
Net migration (thous.)
Three-month treasury bill rate (%)
Conventional mortgage rate (%)
Annual growth (% change)
Employment
Personal income (cur $)
Consumer price index
Housing permits
Population
1752.8 1742.1
274.3 267.9
12 1.1
99.9 96.5
1732 170.2
802 79.0
62.0 60.6
309 30.7
1478.5 1474.2
260.5 2587
58.4 582
88.8 88.2
97.1 966
229.4 2302
451.8 4518
292.5 290.5
240.5 2387
52.0 51.8
89 9.0
161.8 162.3
177.2 178.9
1028 103.1
744 75.8
48838 49203
2.271 2.259
74 8.6
3628.7 3636.2
107 6.6
0.2 0.1
52 47
1745.0
17582
1759.8
18435
1765.3
1756.7
1789.2
265.5
266.0
266.8
316.2
278.8
266.6
271.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.1
95.1
95.8
97.0
125.5
102.3
96.6
102.5
169.2
169.1
168.7
189.3
175.3
168.8
167.9
78.6
78.3
77.8
80.4
80.7
78.1
76.7
59.9
60.1
60.2
73.0
63.1
60.1
60.6
307
30.7
30.7
36.0
31.6
30.7
30.6
1479.6
1492.2
1493.0
1527.3
1486.4
14901
1517.6
2587
259.6
260.0
276.7
262.6
259.7
264.4
58.2
58.5
58.5
63Z
59.2
58.4
58.9
88.4
89.0
89.4
91.0
89.9
89.2
91.0
95.7
94.6
94.1
105.2
98.5
94.5
93.7
229.3
230.3
231.3
249.4
232.3
231.0
239.2
456.7
461.7
464.7
451.8
451.3
4627
476.9
292.7
298.4
295.0
289.7
292.7
294.7
293.5
238.9
2390
239.1
240.0
241.0
239.1
240.9
53.8
59.5
55.8
49.7
51.7
55.6
52.6
90
8.8
8.7
4.8
8.6
8.8
8.2
163.2
164.9
165.5
164.5
162.0
164.9
169.4
180.5
183.1
1845
179A
1770
183.5
1918
103.9
1052
1059
106.1
102.9
1054
110.2
766
779
786
733
74.1
781
81.6
49555
50175
50472
50048
48836
50247
52115
2 269
2 277
2 286
2 248
2 261
2 282
2.322
8.5
8.6
9.9
158
7.8
9.6
12.6
3642.7
3649.0
3655.4
3584.6
36240
3652.3
3679.7
2.7
1.8
2.3
245
114
2.3
6.0
0.1
02
0.4
1.4
02
04
1.8
5.0
5.1
54
60
50
53
6.3
-3.6
-2.4
0.7
3.0
0.4
1.5
3.8
3.6
57
3.1
1.0
-2.1
1.8
1.3
1.7
54.9
64.9
-5.4
4.2
59.8
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Quarterly
data are seasonally adjusted
and expressed on an annual basis.
0.9
4-2
-0.5
1.9
3.8
-1.3
3.7
4.5
4.3
06
0.9
1.8
-42.7
.50.4
22.2
31.7
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.8
Page 7 March 2010
THE Pk:GET SOUND
ECONOMIC FORECASTER
1.2(
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
Leading Index
Good news.
The Puget Sound Index of Lead-
ing Economic Indicators jumped
1.8 percent in the fourth quarter
of last year, following an upwardly
revised gain of 0.6 percent in the
third quarter. This is further evi-
dence that a regional economic re-
covery is on the way. The monthly
version of the leading index posted
on our website has been telling
the same story. In February, we re-
ported that the monthly index has
"advanced more than 5 percent
since bottoming -out last March,
an almost sure sign that the Puget
Sound downturn will soon give
way to expansion."
Could the indexes be giving mis-
leading signals? It seems unlikely
based on the historical record. As
shown in the graph, the quarterly
leading index has never had a false
start prior to an expansion. The
only near -miss was a tentative
turnaround during the middle of
the 1992-93 period of stagnation
before a more definitive rise at the
end of the period. Otherwise, the
recovery signal has always been
a pronounced change in direction
of the leading index much like we
have right now.
Of the seven components that
comprise the leading index, four
(manufacturing hours, help -want-
ed ads, first-time unemployment
insurance claims, and housing per -
Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators
1987= 100
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998
Shaded areas show recessions or periods of economic stagnation.
2002 2006
mits) improved last quarter, while
three (the interest rate spread, real
durable goods sales, and the Boe-
ing backlog -delivery ratio) were
unchanged. The stronger readings
for the labor market indicators,
which in each case have improved
for two straight quarters, are espe-
cially encouraging. The lengthen-
ing of the manufacturing workweek
and the rise in help -wanted ads are
the stuff of job creation, while the
drop in new unemployment claims
means that layoffs are easing.
The fact that no leading index
component declined last quarter is
another plus. We look forward to
reporting a rise in jobs sometime
soon.
Puget Sound Housing Permits
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 f 999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
1.02
I.o0
098
096
094
0.92
0.90
0.88
0.86
1987 1989 Mi 1991 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Puget Sound Initial Claims for
Unemployment Insurance
Copyright :� 12010 by Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc. Reproduction without pennlssion is prohibited.
Tin• Puget Sound Fxonomic Foreca+ter (USN 15-911-T250) is published four times a year A one-year subscription to the newsletter is $395. A one-year
subscription to the ncm Aetter and web site Is $695. For additional in formation, please visit www.econamleforecaster.com you may also contact
Dick Conway or Doug Pedersen at Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc., P. o. Box 2241, Seattle, WA 98111-2241. Telephone CMM 329.1707.
We would like to thank Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Northwest Multiple Listing Service, and Dupre+ Scott Apau-tment Advkors for permission
to use copyrighted information.
We attempt to be as accurate as possible with the information pruseuted In the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. However, Conway Pedezgen
Economics, Inc , does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information or forecast In the newsletter, and is not responsible
for Busy errors or omisslons or the results obtained from the use of such information or forecast Ik+sign: Gage Design
Page 8 March 2010
City of Renton Economic Forecast
2010 - 2011
Prepared for
Finance and Information Technology
City of Renton
by
Douglas H. Pedersen
Doug Pedersen & Associates
January 29, 2010
Introduction and Summary
This report updates the City of Renton Economic Forecast dated July 31, 2009. It relies
on the January 10, 2010 national economic forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators,
a consensus of 50 national forecasters, and the December 2009 Puget Sound and King
County economic forecast from Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc., as published in The
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. The Renton forecast is prepared with the aid of a
simple econometric model developed for the City. In general, the approach is to model
specific Renton economic time series as a function of the respective King County or
Puget Sound series along with additional variables that capture Renton economic growth
relative to King County or Puget Sound growth.
A nascent U.S. economic recovery is underway, but labor and housing markets still
remain severely depressed. Employment and new home construction appear poised to
turn higher, but so far there is limited evidence of an improving trend. Nevertheless, the
consensus of national forecasters calls for U.S. payrolls to rise by an average of 109,000
jobs per month this year and for annual housing starts to reach 730,000 units which, in
both cases, would represent significant turnarounds. Further improvement is forecast for
2011. Puget Sound payrolls are expected to begin rising again in the second quarter of
this year, marking the end of an eight -quarter slide costing the region an estimated
108,000 jobs. Single-family housing permits are expected to slowly revive following the
pickup in home sales. Renton employment is expected to hold relatively steady over the
next two years extending the trend of the last four years. The City's share of King
County population and taxable retail trade sales is expected to continue to rise.
Comparative Growth Rates, 2010 — 2011
Average Annual Percent Change
United States Puget Sound King County Renton
Employment 0.6
Population 0.9
1 Excludes effect of annexations
Economic Conditions and Forecasts
The U.S. Economy
0.5 0.3 -0.4
0.7 0.8 1.6'
The U.S. economy, measured by real GDP, finally resumed growth in the second half of
2009 thanks to massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. Ln terms of the decline in output,
the recession amounted to a loss of 3.8 percent, somewhat more severe than the
recessions in 1973-75 and 1981-82. However, in terms of the contraction in employment,
the economic loss has been much more severe —a 5.2 percent decline in jobs through
December 2009—about twice the percentage decline during the recessions of the early
1970s and 1980s. Moreover, ongoing slack in job creation, which is keeping the
unemployment rate elevated and wage growth flat, along with faltering commercial
construction, tight credit and depleted consumer wealth, suggest that weak private -sector
demand could constrain the economy for the foreseeable future.
Thus, despite the economic strength at the end of 2009, the January Blue Chip consensus
forecast calls for real GDP to grow at approximately its long-term trend rate of 2.9
percent in coming quarters led by modest gains in consumer spending. Reduced business
inventory liquidation and rising residential investment will continue to make positive
contributions to growth, while nonresidential investment drifts sideways and a widening
net export deficit subtracts from growth.
While welcome, near -term real GDP growth at the trend rate of 2.9 percent means that
the recovery, at least initially, will prove subpar. Indeed past business cycle patterns
show that the deeper the preceding recession, the stronger the first year of recovery.
Instead, the consensus expectation is for growth more like the expansions following the
relatively moderate recessions in 1990-91 and 2001 where the real GDP growth rate
remained relatively subdued.
-2
-4
-6
-8
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product
rate
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Blue Chip Forecast, January 2010
0 Baseline --- High - Low
U.S. Payroll Employment and U.S. Unemployment Rate
139
138
137
136
135
134
133
132
131
130
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Based on Blue Chip Forecast. January 2010
0 Employment(I)---Unemployment rate (r)
Labor markets will also struggle. According to the Blue Chip report, employment
bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2009 down 7.3 million jobs from the peak in the
fourth quarter of 2007. But reflecting productivity gains, increased work hours, and
reduced availability of credit, job growth is not expected to turn decisively higher until
the second half of 2010. And by the fourth quarter of 2011 net employment gains will
amount to only 3.7 million jobs, just over one-half the total loss. The unemployment rate
is expected to peak at 10.3 percent in the first quarter of this year, and then slowly ease to
9.8 percent in the fourth quarter and to 8.9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011. Faster
improvement in the unemployment rate will be hampered by workers, who have given up
looking for jobs, returning to the labor force as employment prospects improve.
10
The slack in labor markets and their prolonged recovery is expected to restrict growth in
personal income which will, in turn, impede consumer spending. Without the benefit of
incentives, real personal consumption expenditures slowed to an annual rate of 2.0
percent in the fourth quarter. This was still enough to lift the year -over -year growth rate
for consumer spending into positive territory for the first time in six quarters, but the
squeeze on incomes (as well as the drag from other fundamentals such as high household
debt burdens and tight consumer credit) will hold back a much stronger rebound. Based
on the Blue Chip forecast, year -over -year growth in real personal income will turn
positive in the second quarter of 2010 but then flatten out at just under 3.0 percent in
2011 keeping the pickup in consumer spending growth in check.
Reduced credit availability for business, along with a drop in demand for loans, is also
expected to restrain the recovery. As shown below, decline in business lending goes
hand -in -hand with high unemployment. The current extreme contraction in business
loans and the rising unemployment rate suggest an extended period of lackluster
performance for the U.S. economy.
U.S. Real Personal Income and Consumer Spending U.S. Business Loans and U.S. Unemployment Rate
-2
-4
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Based on Blue Chip Forecast. January2010
— Personalincome — - Personal cons urn plione)penditures
20 Yr
16
12
\J
1999 1995 2000 2005
Shaded areas are periodsof reduced credit availability
12
10
—Change in real business loans (1) -- Unemploymentrate (r)
In spite of the cautious consensus forecast from the Blue Chip economists, many key
indicators for the U.S. economy have shown significant improvement in recent months
leaving no doubt that the recession has ended and recovery has begun. For example:
• Manufacturing output has clearly rebounded according to both the Federal Reserve's
index of industrial production, which has been steadily rising since last July, and the
Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which has averaged above
50 (indicating that the manufacturing economy is expanding) since August.
• New orders for nondefense capital goods have climbed more than 12 percent since
bottoming out in April of last year —an encouraging sign of business investment
which is acting to offset the decline in business spending on structures.
4
• The long, steep decline in housing starts has come to an end. The annual rate for
single-family starts rose by about 100,000 units (28 percent) during 2009. The return
to higher production rates in coming quarters, however, may be a bumpy road if
foreclosures offset recent progress in reducing excess housing inventory. Based on
the Blue Chip forecast, total housing starts will climb to 940,000 units by the fourth
quarter of 2010 and 1.2 million units by the fourth quarter of 2011.
• Home prices have stopped falling. The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index
recorded its sixth straight monthly gain in November (latest data) and the lagging
Seattle index moved higher for the second consecutive month. While housing prices
are in the process of stabilizing, the flood of foreclosures and adjustment to the pull-
back in incentives could weigh on prices over the near term.
U.S. Manufacturing Indexes
1 25 Index 2002 =1 00 Index 65
1 20
1 15
1 10
1 05
1 00
0.95
0.90
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
— industrial production (1) -- ISM purchasing managers index (r)
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits
9 e Units, million$ ann. rate
2.
1
1
0
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
— Total starts - -- Single-family permits
--- Single-family starts
U.S. Manufacturers' New Orders
68000 $millions
64000
60000
56000
52000
48000 h ....... 4. .444.... ..... ........ ... �..1 ._..
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
— 20-city composite -- Seattle
The Puget Sound and King County Economies
The latest employment figures for the Puget Sound economy confirm that the four -county
region is suffering a noticeably deeper downturn than the nation. Between the peak in
employment in February 2008 and December 2009, the region lost nearly 130,000 jobs or
7.0 percent of its total wage and salary employment base. This amounts to a 1.8
percentage point greater decline than the comparable national loss. Measured on a
quarterly basis, as shown below, the current job loss is approaching 6 percent, more
severe than the 1981-83 and 2001-03 recessions, but only one-half the magnitude of the
job decline during the Boeing Bust between 1969 and 1971.
In terms of timing, the region is trailing the nation by about one quarter. Employment is
expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2010, at which time the unemployment rate
will peak at 9.6 percent (about one-half of a percentage point below the national
unemployment rate). However, as with the U.S. economy, a relatively slow rate of job
creation means that recovery in employment back to the prior peak level in the first
quarter of 2008 will take an extended period of time. According to the December 2009
forecast from The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, employment, while rising most of
this year, will still show an annual decline of 0.8 percent in 2010 before rising 1.8 percent
in 2011. Not until the second quarter of 2013 will regional employment surpass the
previous high. Growth is expected to trace a saucer -shaped pattern similar to the drawn -
out 2001-03 recovery.
Puget Sound Recessions
Employment Change and Duration
1.05
1.00
0.95
0-90
0.85
0-80
0.75
070
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Quarters
1969.3-1971.3 20011-2003.2
-- - 1981.3-1983.1 --- 2008.2-2010.1
Puget Sound Employment
for each industry. index =1 00 at employment peak
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Aerospace — - - Prof. and bus. services
--- Information --- Construction
One reason the region has fallen harder than the nation ironically has to do with the
strength of the Puget Sound economy just prior to the recession. With local employment
and population growing at twice the national rate, activity in both consumer and business
markets was at a high level. Consequently, when the recession hit, the region had farther
to fall. The job declines in construction and professional and business services, for
example, have been more severe in percentage terms in the region than nationally, and
vastly disproportionate to their respective shares of employment. Puget Sound
construction jobs have, so far, dropped 25 percent compared to 21 percent nationally,
while Puget Sound professional and business service jobs have declined 9 percent versus
7 percent nationally. The construction and professional and business services industries
together made up 21 percent of regional jobs at the employment peak, but have directly
accounted for 51 percent of the decline in employment through the end of last year.
While employment in both sectors is expected to bottom -out in the first quarter of this
year, the pace of recovery will be measured.
Unprecedented slack in personal income and a dramatic drop in taxable retail sales
provide additional evidence of the recession's hit to regional consumer markets.
Weakening growth in current dollar personal income in 2008 led to an outright decline in
income last year-- -the first ever year-to-year loss. Pull -back in Puget Sound taxable retail
sales reached -15.7 percent on a year -over -year basis in the second quarter last year— also
a record loss reflecting the effect of the credit crunch and household decisions to defer
spending in addition to the shortfall in income. As the chart shows, growth rates for
personal income and taxable sales are expected to turn positive this year, but there is a
large loss to make up. Personal income has shrunk by nearly 3 percent and taxable retail
sales by an astounding 20 percent.
Puget Sound Personal Income and Taxable Retail Sales
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
E j Personal income - Taxable retail sales
In the Puget Sound housing market, the epicenter of the recession's impact, conditions
finally appear to be stabilizing. Puget Sound home sales posted impressive gains in 2009
while prices stabilized and inventories fell according to regional multiple listing service
data. Puget Sound monthly home sales in December exceeded 4,300 units, up 85 percent
from the low in late 2008. The average home price has steadied out at $350,000 and the
inventory -sales ratio has dropped below six months. Single-family housing permits, still
in the cellar, nevertheless show slow improvement with the recovery in home sales and
7
the drop in inventories. Permit activity is expected to continue to pick up as economic
conditions firm. As shown below, the current level of housing permits is substantially
below the long -run average for the Puget Sound economy. But, as the fundamental
determinants of housing (regional employment growth, changes in population/net
migration, household formation) improve, the current shortfall from trend should recover.
This process, however, will take most of the first half of the decade.
Puget Sound Home Sales and Inventory -Sales Ratio Puget Sound Housing Permits
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source Regional MLS
—Sales(1) Inventory -sales ratio (r)
14 50000
12
40000
10
8 30000
6 20000
4
10000
2
0 0
Note 1970-09 average =22,500 unitsperyear
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
In a large, integrated metropolitan area such as the Puget Sound region there is a strong
tendency for the county economies to move together. People may live in one county,
commute across county lines to work, and spend money in both areas or in a third
jurisdiction. This "co -movement" is especially evident when the region confronts a deep
recession. Thus, the peak -to -trough job loss for King and Snohomish counties (assuming
Puget Sound Employment by County
1 Index
'.0
Of
M
OJ
O.f
Of
— King --- Snohomish - Pierce --- Kitsap
8
they bottom -out in the first quarter as forecast) is identical at 6.1 percent. This is just
slightly greater than the expected job loss for Pierce County and about two percentage
points more than the expected decline in Kitsap County which is somewhat less
integrated with the rest of the region. Recovery in King County employment is expected
to parallel the upturn in overall Puget Sound employment (King County jobs make up
two-thirds of total regional jobs). Quarter -to -quarter job growth will begin this year,
although average King County employment for 2010 will still be lower than last year.
Employment is expected to climb 1.7 percent in 2011. As shown in the table, recovery in
King County population growth, housing permits, and taxable retail sales closely matches
the expected growth for the region. One measure where the county should show better
results than the region is the unemployment rate. Unemployment is measured on a place
of residence basis so commuters to King County who become unemployed impact the
unemployment rate in the county where they live.
Summary Forecast: U.S., Puget Sound, and King County
Annual Percent Change
Actual ----------__-_-____ --- Forecast ---
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
United States'
GDP ($00)
3.1
2.7
2.1
0.4
-2.4
2.8
3.1
Employment
1.7
1.8
1.1
-0.4
-3.7
-0.6
1.7
Consumer price index
3.4
3.2
2.8
3.8
-0.4
2.1
2.0
Housing starts
6.3
-12.6
-25.9
-32.9
-38.7
32.2
34.2
Puget Sound Region
Employment
2.7
3.2
2.9
0.9
-4.0
-0.8
1.8
Population
1.0
1.8
1.2
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.7
Taxable retail sales
9.5
9.1
7.2
-5.2
-13.0
0.8
6.6
Housing permits
10.2
-2.5
3.3
-42.8
-50.6
34.1
35.9
Consumer price index
2.8
3.8
3.8
4.3
0.6
1.8
1.8
King County
Employment
2.2
2.7
2.0
1.4
-4.2
-1.1
1.7
Population
1.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.7
Taxable retail sales
8.4
8.7
8.6
-4.1
-14.3
0.5
7.0
Housing permits
10.5
11.1
19.1
-38.9
-67.6
34.6
43.5
' Blue Chip Economic Indicators, January 2010
2 Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, December 2009
9
The Renton Economy
Economic Characteristics
An interesting characteristic of the Renton economy, as documented in earlier reports, is
its strong long -run growth in population, housing activity, and taxable retail sales
compared to the King County and Puget Sound economies, in contrast to its relatively
weaker growth in employment. Two recessions during this last decade held growth in
overall Puget Sound employment to only 3.8 percent between 2000 and 2009, the
weakest gain in any nine-year period in the last 30 years. Comparable King County
employment declined 1.2 percent, while Renton jobs fell 2.6 percent. (This is based on
covered employment published by the Washington Employment Security Department).
Emolovment: Renton. Kina Countv. PuaetSound
1.11
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Note Employment is covered employment series pub!ished by
Washington Employment Security Dept
Renton ---- King County - Puget Sound
Housing Stock: Renton, King County, Puget Sound
1.35 Index. 2000 =1.0
1.30
1-25
1.20
1.15 `-
1 10
1.05
1.00
0.95
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Note Renton index excludes 2008 and 2009 annexations
Renton ---- King County -- Puget Sound
Pooulation: Renton. Kina County. PuaetSound
1-35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1-00
0.95
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Note Renton index excludes 2008 and 2009 annexations
- Renton -- -- King County - --- Puget Sound
Taxable Retail Sales: Renton, King County, PuaetSound
1.4. Index. 2000 =1.0
- Renton ---- King County
Puget Sound
to
Despite the relative slack in Renton job creation, mostly due to a 5,900 drop in Boeing
employment, population (excluding the large annexations in 2008 and 2009) rose more
than 25 percent over the period, compared to a 10 percent gain in King County and Puget
Sound. Similarly, the Renton housing stock (excluding annexations) rose 27 percent
versus 12 percent in King County and 15 percent region -wide. And the level of taxable
retail sales in Renton last year was 16 percent above the level in 2000, compared to gains
of only 4 percent in King County and 11 percent for the overall Puget Sound economy.
Over the nine-year period from 2000 to 2009:
• the Renton share of King County employment held steady at 4.8 percent (even as
Boeing employment in Renton dropped from 36.0 percent of county aerospace
employment to 29.8 percent),
• the city's share of county -wide taxable retail sales rose to 5.1 percent from 4.5
percent,
• Renton housing stock including annexations climbed to 4.5 percent (3.5 percent
excluding annexations) of King County housing stock, up from 3.1 percent, and
• Renton population including annexations reached 4.4 percent (3.3 percent without
annexations) of King County population, up from 2.9 percent.
Renton and King County Economies, 2009*
Renton
King County
Percent of
King County
Total employment (thou.)
54.1
1,135.6
4.8
Aerospace (thou.)
13.2
44.2
29.8
Taxable retail sales (mil. $)
1,970.8
38,764.5
5.1
Housing stock (thou.)
37.7
832.4
4.5
Population (thou.)
83.7
1,897.3
4.4
* Employment and taxable retail sales figures are partially estimated; employment is covered employment
published by the Washington Employment Security Department.
Notwithstanding the distinctions of the Renton economy, there is a tendency for the Puget
Sound regional economy and its county and city components to move through business
cycle swings together. Thus, the retreat in employment and taxable retail sales, and the
slowdown in population growth that came with the onset of the recession generally
affected all areas at the same time. Likewise, the recovery is expected to take hold at
about the same time throughout the region. Similar to the forecasts for King County and
Puget Sound, Renton employment and retail spending are expected to bottom -out during
2010 and grow once again in 2011.
11
Boeine Activit
The recession in the airline industry has taken the form of declining air traffic, weak
fares, diminished financial health of air carriers, and excess airplane capacity. Airlines
worldwide lost about $11 billion in 2009 and are projected to lose $5.6 billion more this
year. In this environment airlines have drastically cut airplane orders —in the case of the
737, to 197 planes (gross) in 2009, less than one-third the average tally of the prior four
years. Adjusted for cancellations and conversions, net 737 orders amounted to 178
planes last year, still somewhat above prior recession lows. But the reduced order rate is
expected to continue this year and next considering the modest pace expected for the
economic recovery, the airline financial losses and strained credit conditions, and the vast
backlog of 737 orders (2076 planes at the end of last year) that appears sufficient to meet
Boeing Renton Employment, Plane Deliveriesand Orders
28
24
20
16
12
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note employment is on FTE basis. orders are average of current and
prior three years
�1 Ernployment(I) Deliveries (r) — Orders (r)
Boeing Share of Total Renton Employment
64
.60
.56
.52
.48
44
40
.36
.32
.28
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note figured on FTE basis from City business license records
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
PugetSound Aerospace Employment
28
24
20
A
IF
16
12 _/
90
80
70
60
50
a 40
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note. Renton employment is on FTE basis
--- Boeing-Renton(1) --- Rest of Puget Sound (r)
50
40
30
20
10
Renton Employment
i
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note- FTE basis
Total ---Boeing ---- Al other
12
demand at least for the near term. Orders are expected to slip to 155 planes this year, and
then pick up slightly to 180 planes in 2011. From a long -run perspective, these orders
rates fall far below future expectations. Boeing's 2009 Current Market Outlook assumes
that air traffic growth will average about 5 percent per year over the next twenty years,
resulting in a requirement for 19,460 single -aisle airplanes. If Boeing's share of the
single -aisle market was 40 percent, annual demand would average about 390 planes.
Despite excess airplane capacity, weak orders, and uncertain airline finances, Boeing
cites over -commitment of delivery positions and the large order backlog in recent
statements that it expects to maintain 737 production at the current rate of 31 planes per
month "for the foreseeable future." Several industry analysts do not believe such a high
production rate will hold in view of the drop in air traffic. Some have also noted that
Boeing is expected to announce a new engine program for the 737 which could
encourage customers to hold back orders over the near term and perhaps make production
cuts more likely. On the upside for Renton, this would push -out decisions about a
replacement plane, thus extending the 737 production life. For 2010, the 31 plane -per -
month assumption yields deliveries of 372 planes, the same output as 2009. A more
cautious assumption for next year-31 planes per month in the first half and 26 planes
per month in the second half results in 342 planes total for the year.
Boeing employment in Renton is expected to slip 1.6 percent this year and again in
2011—a total decline of 429 jobs over the two-year period. This forecast is based on the
aerospace employment outlook for the four -county Puget Sound economy and expected
airplane delivery rates from the Renton plant relative to total deliveries. Thus, it takes
into account Boeing's previously announced plans to cut 4500 jobs from Puget Sound
commercial airplane payrolls. Recent statements suggest that much of the remaining cuts
from this overall target will be in connection with the 787 and 747-8 programs in Everett.
Boeing jobs in Everett are also susceptible to the planed cuts in 777 production rates at
mid -year. The forecast for Renton keeps the Boeing share of total employment steady at
about 30 percent over the forecast period, one-half the proportion in the early 1990s.
Note that the forecast does not include just -announced plans to transfer an unspecified
number of engineers from Renton to Everett over the next two years. A risk to the
forecast is the possibility of an early, unexpected pull -back in 737 production which
would feed through to the workforce.
Other Renton Employment, Population, and Housing
As shown above, growth in other (non -Boeing) employment in Renton has almost exactly
offset the decline in Boeing jobs over the last twenty years, leaving total employment in
2009 (42,680 full-time equivalent jobs) within 400 jobs of the total in 1989. Other
Renton employment is highly correlated with other (non -aerospace) King County
employment. Over the last twelve months, job losses in King County have been most
severe in construction, durable goods manufacturing outside of aerospace, wholesale and
retail trade, financial activities, and professional and business services. The only sector
in the county with positive job growth has been educational and health services.
13
For forecasting purposes, other Renton employment is modeled as a function of other
King County employment which is expected to fall slightly this year (following a large
drop in 2009) before climbing again in 2011. According to the model, other Renton
employment will follow a similar pattern —a 1.0 percent decline this year after a 4.8
percent fall in 2009, picking up to a 1.4 percent growth rate in 2011. Combined with the
erosion in Boeing jobs, total Renton employment is expected to decline 1.2 percent this
year before rising 0.5 percent in 2011.
Renton population growth, excluding accumulated annexations, has exceeded King
County population growth in each of the last ten years (see chart on page 9) leading to
Renton's rising share of King County population. However, this was not the case during
the 1990s when the City's population growth rate (ex annexations) was greater than the
County's in only four of the ten years, leaving its population share largely unchanged. It
seems no coincidence that the same pattern holds for housing —gains in the Renton
housing stock in the 1990s were similar to those for the County, in contrast to much
stronger housing activity in Renton relative to the County during this last decade. This
suggests that Renton population and housing activity should be forecast simultaneously
(see chart below) dependent on King County population and housing activity.
-2
Renton Population and Housing
Percent Numberof permits
rr r�
r r rr r
r r rr r
r r r r r
r r
r �
r �
Note data plotted are two-year moving averages.
population excludes 2008-09 annexations
I 1 I
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1200 .048
1000 .044
.040
800
.036
600
.032
400
.028
200 .024
0 .020
Renton Share of lGng County Population
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
— Population growth (1) • •. - Housing pern is lagged 1 yr (r) --- Fistory and w ithoul 2008-09 annexations - - - Includes 2008-09 annex
The outlook for King County calls for scant population growth this year and next (0.8
percent on average —about the replacement rate) but a noticeable rise in housing permits
from the record low last year. The outlook for Renton calls for population growth of 1.6
percent both this year and next (compared to 2.0 percent excluding annexations last year)
and pickup in housing permits from 313 units in 2009 to 354 units this year and 430 units
in 2011. The multi -family share of housing permits is expected to dip to 20 percent this
year, about the same level as in the 2001-2003 recession, and down from 55 percent in
2008 and 73 percent in 2007. The expected rebound in housing will still leave total
permits in 2011 lower than at any time in the prior fifteen years. It is possible that the
model is understating the housing recovery, but the glut of recent multi -family activity
14
and the uncertain and problematic nature of the housing market at this time warrant a
conservative approach.
Taxable Retail Sales
A distinction of the current downturn in the regional economy is its extraordinary
deleterious impact on taxable retail sales which, in turn, is decimating the key tax base
for state and local government budgets. After peaking at $75.0 billion in 2007, Puget
Sound taxable retail sales have plunged 17.5 percent to an estimated $61.8 billion in 2009
(taxable retail sales contracted by only 3.2 percent during the 2001-2003 recession).
Although taxable sales may have bottomed -out last year (fourth quarter data is not yet
available), they are not expected to recover to the 2007 peak until 2013. Moreover, as
noted in the December 2009 issue of The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, "when
adjusted for inflation, real taxable retail sales will not return to the 2007 level until 2016,"
and "when adjusted for population growth, real taxable retail sales per capita will not
fully recover until sometime after 2020." Thus, at current tax rates, "it will take more
than ten years before the tax base provides the same purchasing power that it had in
2007."
Renton has fared better than many areas in the region over the last two years with
declines in taxable retail sales amounting to 15.6 percent compared to the 17.5 percent
loss for the region. Decline in spending in Renton has been widespread - across most all
sectors where sales are subject to the retail sales tax. For the first three quarters of 2009
compared to the year-earlier period, retail trade sales were off 4.7 percent (led by a 7.2
percent drop in motor vehicles) while taxable sales in other industries were down 23.3
percent (led by a 40.5 percent plunge in construction).
Total Taxable Retail Sales
Puget Sound and Selected Cities
Annual Percent Change
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009'
Auburn
0.9
2.7
13.9
3.8
6.8
5.3
-17.4
-22.8
Bellevue
-3.4
0.3
4.1
11.6
9.1
15.9
-6.0
-16.1
Everett
-3.4
-0.3
3.1
11.2
16.1
6.4
-8.6
-18.4
Federal Way
1.7
-1.6
0.9
8.4
8.6
5.2
-8.1
-12.9
Kent
-4.4
-4.5
12.9
2.5
11.6
1.4
-17.6
-33.0
Kirkland
-4.0
8.1
6.9
15.7
10.1
1.2
-12.0
-17.7
Puyallup
6.4
4.7
6.3
8.4
6.7
-2.3
-5.2
-7.5
Redmond
-6.6
2.8
5.8
7.0
11.4
3.1
2.4
-7.1
Renton
-1.2
5.1
5.1
5.3
7.3
9.4
-1.2
-14.4
SeaTac
8.3
-5.6
5.4
7.5
6.1
-3.2
-3.4
-7.9
Seattle
-2.7
-1.2
2.8
10.6
9.4
9.4
0.4
-12.5
Tacoma
-1.5
6.7
3.3
10.1
7.5
2.8
-8.1
-12.0
Tukwila
-8.6
5.9
2.6
4.0
6.7
7.0
-8.7
-21.2
Puget Sound
-1.2
2.2
5.8
9.5
9.1
7.2
-5.2
-12.2
'.First three quarters of 2009 versus first three quarters of 2008
2 King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties
15
Total Taxable Retail Sales
20 Percent Change
10
0
-10
-20
.30
40
1999 20M 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
—Auburn Federal Way -- Kent —Renton
Tukwila Puyallup —Puget Sound
An improved outlook for the key drivers of retail spending (personal income, housing
activity, unemployment), as discussed earlier, is expected to stem the losses in taxable
retail sales and set the stage for renewed growth in 2010 and 2011. This holds across -
the -board —at the regional level, for King County, and for the Renton economy. Gains
this year are expected to be very mild (more like a steadying -out of the downward trend)
before stronger growth resumes in 2011. For the Puget Sound region as a whole, the
forecast calls for total taxable retail sales to begin rising in the fourth quarter of 2009
resulting in a growth rate of 0.8 percent in 2010, accelerating to 6.6 percent in 2011.
Renton taxable retail sales are forecast in two parts- retail trade and all other taxable
retail sales. The model for retail trade considers the outlook for Puget Sound retail trade
sales, Renton housing activity, and the growth in Renton population relative to Puget
Sound population. Following a three-year decline, it forecasts a 2.7 percent rise in 2010
and a stronger 7.5 percent recovery in 2011. If this forecast is correct, the Renton share
of King County retail trade sales will rise above 7 percent during the forecast period. The
model for other taxable retail sales in Renton uses other Puget Sound taxable retail sales
and Renton housing activity relative to Puget Sound housing activity as explanatory
variables. It forecasts a similar recovery-2.5 percent growth this year after the steep
loss in 2009, followed by pickup to 7.9 percent growth in 2011.
The combined gain is 2.6 percent this year and 7.7 percent in 2011. The main risk to this
forecast concerns the outlook for the drivers of consumer spending such as the effect of
tighter credit standards by banks and decisions by consumers to restore lost wealth-- i.e.
reduce spending and rebuild savings. These variables are not explicitly considered in the
models and could act to hold back the expected recovery in spending.
E
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
4i u
0
Renton Taxable Retail Sales
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total --- Retail trade ---- Other industries
Renton Share of King County Taxable Retail Trade Sales
.075
.070
.065
.060
.055
.050
.045
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
17
City of Renton
Baseline Economic Forecast
January 2010
Actual -------------________
----- Forecast ----
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Boeing Renton Plant
Orders (Planes)
569
732
838
486
197
155
180
Deliveries (Planes)'
212
302
330
290
372
360
336
Renton Employment2
Total
35,551
41,134
42,740
43,818
42,680
42,164
42,356
Percent Change
-0.1
15.7
3.9
2.5
-2.6
-1.2
0.5
Boeing3
10,865
11,942
13,224
12,829
13,169
12,952
12,740
Percent Change
4.0
9.9
10.7
-3.0
2.7
-1.6
-1.6
Other
24,686
29,192
29,516
30,989
29,511
29,212
29,616
Percent Change
-1.8
18.3
1.1
5.0
-4.8
-1.0
1.4
Renton Population
56,840
58,360
60,290
78,780
83,650
85,016
86,348
Percent Change
2.7
2.7
3.3
30.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
Renton Building Permits5
Residential - New Construction
Units Authorized
889
697
1,319
448
313
354
430
Value ($ Mil.)
144.758
121.903
168.215
77.137
62.210
80.564
97.791
Average Value ($ Thou.)
162.8
174.9
127.5
172.2
198.8
227.6
227.4
Renton Taxable Sales6
Retail Trade ($ Mil.) 1,082.2 1,157.0 1,132.9 1,092.4 1,052.2 1,080.4 1,161.5
Other Industries ($ Mil.) 869.0 936.2 1,156.7 1,170.0 918.7 941.2 1,015.9
Total ($ Mil.) 1,951.2 2,093.2 2,289.5 2,262.5 1,970.8 2,021.6 2,177.4
Percent Change 5.3 7.3 9.4 -1.2 -12.9 2.6 7.7
' 2008 deliveries affected by two -month machinist in September and October
2 FTE employees working in Renton based on City of Renton business license records
3 2008 Boeing employment estimated at 13,537 absent strike
4 Includes annexations of approximately 17,100 persons in 2008 and 3,600 in 2009, but makes no assumption about future annexations
5 U.S. Census Department series; average value affected by mix of single family and multi -family permits
6 Washington Department of Revenue series
04/21 /2010
Highlight of First Quarter Revenue
Sales Tax: 9.9% below 2009, and 6.70/6 below budget at the
end of March. We anticipate collection to be $17.2 million
by the end the year, which is 4.4% below 2009 actual and
7.7% below the $18.6 million budgeted by year-end.
• Permit and Plan Review Fees: combined permit and plan
review fees is 5% higher than 2009, just slightly beating the
budget at the end of ist quarter which is projected to meet
the budget projection for the year.
BEET: i% above 2oo9 and a hair above budget. The risk of
lower collection after the expiration of the Homebuyer
Rebate program is high, but we assume we will make
budget at this time. in, 7
IR
z
Highlight of First Quarter Revenue (cont.)
Gambling Taxes: we are seeing a substantial drop in gambling tax
collection, partially attributable to the change in quarterly to monthly
reporting (February 2009 was the last quarterly return) but there are
actual declines in both pull tabs and card rooms activities. We are
expecting to see a 20% or $400,000 shortfall from the $a million
budgeted.
• Utility Taxes: the $3.9 million revenues collected is 5% below 2009
and 3% or $n6k below the budget of $4 million. At this point, we
expect the revenue will meet or be very close to amount budgeted.
■ Court fines: The effectiveness of photo enforcement program has had
a material impact on the ticketing revenue. We saw the program
revenue drop off from the year before by 30% in February and by 40%
in March. We anticipate a shortfall of $700,000 for the year from this
revenue source.
j ityort
3
04/21 /2010
Sales Tax by Activity
s:a T Historical Sales Tax Trends by Sector
Us
rq22 g3gf q9q 1-2-q q g19013g0�p1q0339_ g03394 q1 g0C3Q<919053M919 3W919o�394919oB�1 q�3�Tl
—MANUFACTURING—CONSTRUCTION —RETAII/WHOLESAEE —AUTOMOTIVE --SERVICES
i oC
Year to Year Change: Construction Sales Tax
CONSTRUCTION
100%
80% —
60% —
40%
20%
0%
- 20%
-40%
-60% II�i 91 1�9Q Q 9 4{ I 9 4I2i41Q 9319431g4
99 00 01 02 03 04 OS 06 07 �1
08 I 09 1
Ciq• of
2
04/21 /2010
Year to Year Change: Automotive Sales Tax
AUTOMOTIVE
25% ,
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% Kim 11
-15%
-20%
-25%
ity of s
g3�g4q
Relative Age of Car Fleet
U.S. LMV Saps: Ratio of 36/120 Months
40 Wb
30 Wo
20%
10%
O%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
L
rn.
- cz-
o
source: Autodata Corporation, ERFC; data th
ugh March 2010
WASHIN GTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
04/21/2010
Permit and Plan Review Fees
$1.6
$1.4
$1.2
$1.0
.2 $0.8
$0.4
$0.2 —*--Budget Act al
$0.0 p
cncncnc7;66c;6OOOOOOO
-1 '-Ir-j C4 r4 rIj r4 C4 C11 r1i
City of,
4
99%
54%
0% 34% 38%
23%
43%
Year to Year Change: Permit and Plan Review Fees
120%
100%
80%
60%
40% 4M
20%
-20%
-40%
..60%
-S3%
-80%
- -
— — — — — — — — — — — — t.
7F City of
: cl
SST
99%
54%
0% 34% 38%
23%
43%
Year to Year Change: Permit and Plan Review Fees
120%
100%
80%
60%
40% 4M
20%
-20%
-40%
..60%
-S3%
-80%
- -
— — — — — — — — — — — — t.
7F City of
: cl
SST
04/21 /2010
Utility Taxes Budget vs. Actual
$ 4.5
$ 4.0
$3.5
$3.0
N $2.5
c
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
e-1 rl rl N N N N N N N N N N N
ton .
a
Year to Year Change: Utility Taxes
100%
80%
60%
40% l
20% 7% 7%
0%
-20%
87% �—
PSE electrical
rate increase in
early 2001.
24%
5 7% 7%
3% co[ -5%
-18%
-24%
-40%
Vl t0 1� W m O N + R N t0 W Ol O
Ol al Ol Ol 01 CDm CDO CD O O CD O
Mir City of, V
to
5
04/21 /2010
Real Estate Excise Tax Budget vs. Actual
$1.6
$1.4 -
$1.2 - --
$1.0
c
_ $0.8
$0.6
$0.4 -- -
$0.2
--*--Budget —♦-
iv r ao m o v .n iv r m m o
m m m m o 0
.-1 rl rl rl N N N N N N N N N N N
City of
-Year to Year Change: Real Estate Excise Tax
Real Estate Excise Tax
100% T 80%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20 %
-40%
-60 %
-80%
61%
17%
38% 40%
1%
-1%
-16%
-57%
r• m m o .-� N m V vi LO r• 0O m o
rn m m M C. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
M m rn rn o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N N N
City Of
u �tl!ol l �. c 8
0
04/21 /2010
amblin
$0.7
$0.6
$0.5
$0.4
c
0
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
TaYAc Ri irlcint vc Orti inl
Q Gl O w M O O O O OOCDCDOCD .
N Ol Ol .O-� Ot O O O O O O O O O O O
R ®CII}•Of.L
4
Year to Year Change: Gambling Taxes
100%
79%
80% - -
60% -
40% J26%
j
19%
20%6% 3% 6%
0%
-20% -4% -3% _S% -3%
-23%
-40%
-41%
-60%
lff lD 1� OO Ol O .--1 N f+f tT Vl �D 1� 07 Ql O
T T Oi O� Ql O O O O O O O O O O
Oi T Ol O� Oi O O O O O O O O O O O
N N N N N N N N N N
r ityof
r4t
04/21 /2010
2010 Year End
Estimate and 2011-2013
Projections
General Fund Revenue/Exp
2010 2010YrEnd 2011 2012 2013
(dollars in millions)
2009Actual Adopted Estimate Projection Projection Projection
General Fund Revenue
$ 97.34 $ 97.84 $ 95.45 $ 98.33 $ 100.83 $ 103.68
% Change from Previous Year
0.5% -1.9% 3.09/. 2.5% 2.V.
General Fund Expenditure
$ 97.20 $ 97.84 $ 97.20 $ 100.03 $ 101.67 $ 103.48
% Change from Previous Year
0.7% 0.0% 2.9% 1.6% 1.8%
Operating Surplus (Deficit)
$ 0-14 $ (0.00) $ (1.75) $ (1.70) $ (0.85) $ 0.19
Cityof ll =
6
Revenue Growth Assumptions
2010YrEnd
2011
2012
2013
Key Revenue
Estimate
Projection Projection
Projection
Sales Tax
City Estimate
-4.4%
7.5%
6.2%
5.5%
State Estimate (FY)
-3.9%
10.3%
5.2%
4.7%
Property Tax
City Estimate
2.3%
1.3%
1.5%
2.0%
State Estimate (FY)
2.1%
1.7%
2.4 /
2.5%
REST
City Estimate
-0.8%
10.0%
5.2%
5.5%
State Estimate (FY)
8.3%
29.6%
3.7%
3.3%
itYof.t
el�l
0
04/21 /2010
Expenditure Growth Assumptions
2010
2010 Yr End
2011 2012
2013
Expenditures Adopted
Estimate
Projection Projection
Projection
Wage
Under Negotiation
Pension
-21%
-21%
46916 7%
9%
Medical _
11%
4%
81YO 8%
8%
Library
Neutral
Baseline 2011-2012 Projection
$120 •...k.... •w_...� tiea.r.
5100
M f40
I
I
1 SFA
I
n $e0
52
M
A .A A _I Actual Adopted nEnd E. Projected Projected Projected Pm),aed P.I..d
2W7 209 2009 2010 2010 211 2012 2013 2014 2015
Summa
2007
20E
Aaual
20®
Aaual
210
Ad d
2010
YrFnd Bt
2I1
P erred
2012
P eaed
2013
Pm'eaed
215
P wed
Eapend'mre25L705
JAa.1
939,(W
93,6E7,106
95.17L399
97,342,052
97,23,32E
97r1W,6!
47 fi!
95,44$69E
97,19509E
9i379.340
10403LW4
104E25,R3
21.67.' 9.7
23,67E.8E3
10i.4E4,781
11430E.722Total
27,214.005
I
Net Cha IFund Wl657393
4E1
724
731E
®0
3.094.7177657.944
762.5431156245E
s
E
04/21 /2010
General Fund Revenue Composition
2007GG Revenue Compsition 2011 GG Revenue Compsistion
Uti� Utility '
13 15%
.iry of L
- �-�0 State Legislative on
Impact on City Operating Budget
Negatively:
* Privatization and restructuring of state liquor sales
(impact unknown)
* 0.3% B&O tax rate increase ($15k impact on General
Fund and $5ok in Surface Water/Sewer utilities)
Positively:
e Reinstate Brokered Natural Gas ($25ok, included in
baseline)
o Temporary (3-years) sales tax on bottled water and
candies (estimated $5ok+/- per year)
�uCity of
IItan
i
10
(8) Monthly Financial Report March 2010
General Governmental Funds
xr:
2rs•
1
2010
Variance
'; Favorable (Unfavorable)
Beginning Fund Balance
AnnualActual
S 23,300,854
..
$ 13,300,854
$ 11,616,561
..
$ 11,816561
S 11,955,285
.:
$ 11,955,285
..
$ 11,955,285
$ -
0.0%
OPERATING REVENUES
Property Tax
29,050,790
1,145,756
30,660,522
960,777
31,364,643
982,841
1,037,146
54,304
5.5%
Sales Tax
20,825,055
5,339,614
17.995,836
4,782,509
18,609,000
4,618,796
4,307,540
(311,255)
-6.7%
Sales Tax- Annexation Credit
-
-
2,132,110
564,676
2,248,000
595,369
511,021
(94,347)
-14.2%
Criminal Justice Sales Tax
1,755,469
383,405
1,650,350
436,358
1,743,000
460,855
413,523
(47,332)
-10.3%
Natural Gas Use Tax
253,377
73,239
242,891
56,975
-
-
73,944
73,944
0.0%
Admission Tax
197,740
46,705
260,269
57,167
260,0D0
57,108
75,236
18,129
31.7%
Franchise Fees
998,288
240,795
1,039,031
259,992
1,040,0D0
260,234
320,478
60,244
23.1%
Electricity Tax
4,580,037
1,199,377
4,963,151
1,479,929
5,150,000
1,535,645
1,381,772
(153,873)
-10.0%
Gas Tax
1,565,810
573,830
1,891,255
845,949
1,858,OD0
831,074
599,950
(231,125)
-27.8%
Transfer Station
380,961
67,151
283,985
52,193
230,0D0
42,272
62,164
19,892
47.1%
TVCable
1,073,168
241,635
1,263,743
310,738
1,250,000
307,359
327,983
20,624
6.7%
Phone/Telegraph/Cellular Phone
2,780,196
651,793
3,065,347
723,095
2,860,000
674,655
822,891
148,237
22.0%
City Utilities
2,606,786
549,558
2,871,599
681,9D6
2,980,000
683,901
664,892
(19,009)
-2.8%
Leasehold Excise Tax
190,644
9,416
146,002
27,996
100,0D0
19,175
35,999
16,824
87.7%
Gambling Excise Tax
2,157,029
498,286
2,141,720
569,842
2,000,000
532,135
336,398
(195,737)
-36.8%
Real Estate Excise Tax
2,800,103
577,456
2,418,456
483,801
2,400,000
480,120
487,709
7,589
1.6%
Less: Municipal Facilities CIP REET
(450,103)
(288,728)
(1,000,000)
(211,038)
(400,000)
(84,415)
(81,027)
3,389
-4.0%
EMS Levy
890,998
85,744
1,170,657
-
897,095
-
-
-
-100.0%
Penalties& Interest on Delinquent Ta x
8,125
1,665
1,353
73
-
-
329
329
0.0%
Business License Fees
485,537
128,257
424,413
118,353
463,067
129,132
117,082
(12,050)
-9.3%
Other Licenses and Permits
257,477
54,265
176,851
39,415
157,250
35,046
62,268
27,222
77.7%
Building Permits
2,034,225
787,036
1,683,082
455,149
1,766,059
477,588
453,658
(23,930)
-5.0%
Intergovernmental (Grants, etc)
3,734,887
715,162
3,820,932
766,431
3,895,228
1,103,708
1,103,708
-
0.0%
Fire District 25 and 40 Contracts
5,013,549
-
5,869,198
8,109
5,554,723
19,525
19,525
-
0.0%
Records, Duplicating, and Passport Fees
176,950
56,151
187,721
43,455
217,585
50,368
37,608
(12,760)
-25.3%
Public Safety
524,565
122,076
521,484
134,041
430,000
110,526
100,750
(9,775)
-8.8%
Development Service Fees
903,768
289,852
677,955
168,159
696,708
172,810
205,641
32,831
19.0%
Culture and Recreation
1,678,818
229,562
1,631,486
219,431
1,572,240
211,463
226,688
15,226
7.2%
Interfund/Interdept-Services
3,072,950
670,152
3,225,745
783,565
3,080,927
748,387
766,090
17,703
2.4%
Fines and Forfeits
2,110,973
284,995
1,448,878
319,771
1,327,193
292,915
251,628
(41,287)
-14.1%
Photo Enforcement
-
-
2,36B,131
616,448
2,250,000
585,698
495,096
(90,602)
-15.5%
Interests and Other Earnings
735,910
133,095
535,314
111,818
434,300
90,718
73,008
(17,710)
-19.5%
Rents, Leases, and Concessions
676,919
215,574
677,960
232,834
720,780
247,539
241,192
(6,347)
-2.6%
Contributions and Donations
175,513
65,759
150,406
29,115
111,900
21,661
29,179
7,518
34.7%
Other Miscellaneous
91,070
49,827
166,012
22,081
111,000
14,764
28,864
14,100
95.5%
Agen•:yType Depos:ts
(31,840)
146
1,202
175
-
-
138
138
0.0%
Transfer -in
381,364
577,0134
560,000
-100.0%
Total Operating Revenues
93,687,106
15,198,607
97,342,052
16,151285
97,838,698
16,308,970
15,590,071
18,899
-4.4%
OPERATING EXPENDITURES
Legislative
245,441
64,482
247,225
61,632
267,957
68,593
65,280
3,312
4.8%
CityAttorney
1,661,225
427,323
1,248,380
296,034
1,621,295
403,070
400,465
2,605
0.6%
CityClerk
604,844
2D0,879
646,581
145,727
931,014
257,862
146,137
111,725
43.3%
Court Services
1,744,122
392,418
1,819,731
462,719
2,011,393
482,628
499,117
(16,489)
-3.4%
Executive
966,373
232,642
1,499,747
348,810
1,635,047
385,505
407,609
(22,105)
-5.7%
Hearing E)eminer
166,820
41,086
171,911
43,524
200,440
50,067
43,412
6,655
13.3%
Common, ty a nd Eco Dvl pmnt Admin
-
-
265,269
69,432
550,312
144,039
146,045
(2,006)
-1.4%
Development Services
4,178,096
977,219
3,615,129
943,965
3,247,282
800,519
836,089
(35,570)
-4.4%
Econom•c Development
1,875,749
485,912
1,244,175
318,971
1,277,641
329,608
305,673
23,935
7.3%
P:ammng
-
-
1,525,460
330,141
1,238,235
267,980
316,376
(48,396)
-18.1%
Finance
1,909,652
522,306
1,969,936
587,513
1,964,890
562,088
443,082
119,OO6
21.2%
Human Resources
981,306
256,662
853,063
203,059
913,669
228,979
213,772
15,207
6.6%
Police
23,894,898
5,611,423
25,833,756
6,439,296
27,610,835
6,690,919
6,677,267
13,652
0.2%
Fire
21,763,640
5,110,276
20,375,286
5,931,457
21,802,109
6,014,430
5,943,458
70,972
1.2%
Facilities
3,614,850
880,519
-
-
-
-
-
-
100.0%
Parks
4,892,441
778,903
4,820,336
823,645
5,061,804
835,166
854,902
(19,736)
-2.4%
Recreation
4,383,163
966,085
7,878,458
1,911,669
4,936,795
1,158,646
1,107,561
51,085
4.4%
Human Services
1,162,553
158,512
1,194,142
159,707
1,165,599
157,388
207,504
(50,116)
-31.8%
Community Resources & Events
367,627
59,680
348,185
62,782
355,694
60,853
64,287
(3,434)
-5.6%
Library
1,890,886
469,954
2,312,128
479,590
2,544,263
574,799
500,663
74,136
12.9%
Museum
136,327
34,097
140,801
35,858
194,120
49,001
46,726
2,275
4.6%
Public Works Administration
886,867
227,586
463,533
119,838
518,399
133,371
129,351
4,020
3.0%
Street Maintenance
3,212,111
691,057
3,794,716
924,161
3,366,524
776,053
816,882
(40,829)
-5.3%
Technical Services
515,708
145,166
478,493
112,967
-
-
-
-
100.0%
Transportation
4,841,955
1,035,809
5,110,639
1,237,670
5,110,456
1,167,385
1,261,456
(94,070)
-8.1%
Debt Service
4,263,739
41,740
4,176,822
-
4,494,945
126,390
126,390
-
0.0%
Non -Departmental
4,622,865
1,206,502
4,370,376
1,065,371
4,792,981
1,210,803
1,136,033
74,770
6.2%
Other
142
,
7
99,3188
051
3202
2500
114
114
100.0%230
OperatingExpenditures
95,
04
17
258
,5
720
1.0X7tai
Total EndingFund Balance
IS 11 i 561
S 7,478,995
$ 11,955 285
S 4,849,107
$ 11,955,285
1 $ 5,327,997
$ 4,849 818
478,179
Page 1 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
OVERVIEW
This financial overview reflects the City's overall financial position for the fiscal year through March 31, 2010. Except as
noted, year-to-date budgeted revenues and operating expenditures are generally based on the collection/disbursement
patterns for the same period of the preceding year. The table on the previous page summarizes the general governmental
fund revenues and expenditures.
Revenues
Taxes
The combined collection of property tax, sales/use tax, utility tax, gambling, admissions, and real estate excise tax
represents 70% of all resources supporting general governmental activities. The following section provides detail
information on property, sales, utility, and other taxes.
Property Tax
March's collection is $548k, making
the total year-to-date collection of
$1 million or 3% of the total budget.
In comparison to the previous year,
the City collected $76k or 8°/.
higher. Compared to the budget,
the City is above projections by
$54k or 6%. This difference in both
the prior year and budget is
primarily due to the homes and
commercial properties that were
delinquent in their property tax
payments for 2009 and making their
payments late 2009/early 2010,
which would result in the City
recording the amounts in January
and February.
Sales Tax
March 2010 sales tax receipts
totaled $1.3 million. Compared to
the same month last year, it is
$171k or 12% less. Compared to
the projected current month's
budget, it is under projections by
$35k or 3%. The year-to-date
collection is $4.3 million or 23% of
the sales tax budget. This is $475k
less than the last year and $311k
below budget. Based on the year-
to-date collection, the City is
projecting sales tax revenues to be
$17.2 million by the end of 2010,
which is $1.4 million under budget.
Property
Yea r to
Date
through
■�
•9,635
a�a
$
$
$
51,304
$ 41,885
445% $ 41,669 ' 432%
303,513
310,483
438,210
134,696
4%127,727 41%
647,845
662,723
547,632
(100,213)
-15% (115,091) -17%
,9,,419
8063214
8,248,386
may
6,711,943
; 6,866,083
_
Jun
113,279 115,881
Jul
104,757
107,163
Aug
66,589
68,118
Sep
250,296
256,044
'
_Oct
5,770,027 5,902,536
Nov
8,275,695
8,465,747
Dec
343,945
351,844
YTDTota!
$ 960,777
$ 982,841
$
1,037,146
$ 76,369
8% $ 54,305 6%
Annual Total
1 $ 30,660,522
$ 31,364,643
Local Retail Sales Tax Revenues
TFebM.r
Yea r . Date through March
M
ays.
$ 1,458,072 $ 1,459,527 $1,289,364 $ (168,709) -12%
1,863,430 1,834,595 1,728,588 (134,842)' -7%
2010 Budget
%
$ (170,163) -12%
106,007 -6%
1,461,007 1,324,674 1,289,589
(171,418) -12%
35 085
! -3%
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
1,398,021 1,367,908 -
1,490,778 1,603,693 -
1,361,808 1,464,336 -
1,443,891 1,547,213 -
1,551,415 1,662,544 -
5ep
1,454,550. 1,573,534 -
Oct
1,560,217 1,610,574 -
Nov
1,440,143 1,636,255 -
Dec
1,512,506 1,524,146 -
YTD Total
1 $ 4,782,509 $ 4,618,796 $ 4,307,540
$ (474,968) -10% $ (311,255) -7%
Annual Tota#
1 $ 17,995,836 $ 18,609,000
Page 2 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
The following table breaks out the City's base sales tax (excluding Criminal Justice and Annexation Credit) by major business
sectors:
New Construction $ 1,194,024 $ 923,975 $ 666,951
$ 457,001
$ (466,974)
51%
$ (209,950)I
-31%_
Auto Sales 916,333 723,719 772,088
719,899
(3,820)
-1%
(52,188)
General Retail 1,589,708 1,589,641 1 1,597,958
1,594,135
4,494
0%
(3,824)
--7%
0%
Manufacturing 234,794 281,277 231,161
212,902
(68,374)
-24%
(18,259)
-8%
Wholesale _ 292,725 234,708 255,498
243,265
8,557
4%
(12,2331
-5%
Service 1,004 130 932,882 ' 947,442
952,299
19,417
1 2%
1 4,858
1%
Other 107,895 96,301 147,698 128,038 31,7371
33%
(19,660)
-13%
Total $ 5,339,610 $ 4,782,504 $ 4,618,796 $ 4,307,540 (474,963)
-10%
1 $ 311,256)
7%
Note: Excludes Annexation Credit and Criminal Justice Sales Taxrevenue.
Utility tax
March utility taxes revenue totals $1.3
million, which is $44k higher than the same
month last year and ahead of budget by
$75k. The year-to-date collection of $3.9
million is below the budget by $116k or 3%
and is also $217k or 5% below 2009. The
unfavorable comparisons in January and
February is primarily due to higher than
normal electrical and natural gas
consumptions during winter months in 2009
that distorted the budget for these two
months. At this time, the City is projecting
utility tax revenues will meet our 2010
budget by the end of the year.
UtilityTax Revenues
IJan ! $ 1,413,641 1 $ 1,379,325 1 $ 1,282,930 $ (130,711) -9% $ (96,395) -7%
F.b 1,485,870 1,449,801 1,354 933 (130,936) -9% (94,868) -7%
Mar 1,251,275 ' 1,220,901 11295,732
44,457 4% 74,831
6%
Apr 1,204,619 1,175,377
May 1,322,947 1,290,833
_
Jun 1,070,303 1 1,044,322
Jul 1,010,609 , 986,077
Aug1,201,122 ! 1,171,965
Sep 1,068,035 1,042,109
Oct 1,079,380 . 1,053,179
Nov 1,090,897 1,064,416
Dec 1,383,272 1,349,694
YTDTotal $ 4,150,785 $ 4,050,000 $ 3,933,596
I $ 217,190 5 $ 116,431
-3%
Annual Total $ 14,581,971 $ 14,228,000
I
The table below breaks out Utility Tax by source, the lower amount generated from Natural Gas is due to warmer
temperatures in the 1st quarter of 2010 than 2009:
Electrical f
Natural Gas �-
Cell _ „
Phone
1,199,377
647,069
393,898
257,895 .
241,635
67,151
1,479,929
902,924
467,855
255,239
310,738
52,193
681,906
1,465,957
528,883
540,839
273,266
355,815
65,470
819,797
819,797
1,381,772
673,894
553,363
269,528
327,983
62,164
664,8921
664,8921
-7%
25%
18%
6%
6%
19%
-2%
-2%
-6%
27%
2%
-1%
-8%
-5%
1 -19%
1-19%681,906
Cable
TransferStatlon
_
CityUtilities�549,558
YTDTotal
1 3.356.584
4.150.785
4.050.027
3.933.5961
-5%
1 -3%
IYTDas%of 1 25% 28% 28% 1 1 1
Page 3 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
Other Taxes
Real Estate Excise Tax
The City collected $309k in Real Estate
Excise Tax revenues (REET) in March. This
is $127k above current month's budget
and $126k ahead the same month last
year. Year-to-date collection of $488k is
$8k or 2% ahead the budget and is also
$4k or 1% above 2009. A struggling real
estate market is a major factor in the
decline of REET.
Almost all REET in recent months are
generated from residential property
transactions. The activities appear to be
smaller in amount but steady in volume.
We hope this trend will continue and not
stop once the federal stimulus incentive
expires.
Gambling Tax
March Gambling Tax collections total
$63k. Year-to-date total of $336k is
$233k or 41% below the year before; and
$195k or 37% below budget.
The lower tax collection is due to cross -
the -board reduction in gambling
activities. Pull tabs overall reduced by
25%, partially due to the change in
business at Cascade Lane; and card -
rooms are seeing over 30% lower in
activities.
Rea I Estate
Excise Tax Revenues
Jan
$ 231,334
Yearto
229,560
_ _ _ 68,760
181,800
Date through
$ 71,303
107 242
309,164
Mar h
$ (160,031). -69%
37,952 55%
125,987 69%
$ (158,257)
38,482
127,364
-69%
56%
70%
Feb 69,290
Mar 183,177
Apr
- May
141,038
308,077
139,944
305,736
Jun
211,295
209,688
Jul
201,960
200,400
Aug310,599
308,232
206,472
208,368
220,344
120,696
Sep 208,046
Oct 209,975
Nov 222,052
Dec 121,614
YID Tota1
$ 483,801
$ 480,120
$ 487,709
$ 3,908 1%
$ 7,589
2%
Annual Total
$ 2,418,456
$ 2,400,000
Because these changes, the City is
anticipating around $400k less in
gambling tax revenue collection than budgeted by the end of the year.
Franchise Fees
Franchise Fees are due quarterly and the
year-to-date revenue collections are
$320k. This is $65k or 25% above the
projected year-to-date budget and $60k
or 23% higher than 2009.
Jan
7 691
$ 186,179 135,608 127,917
1663%
a•
(50,571) -27%
Feb
391,054
186,179 137,736
159,776 63,054
(253,317)
SOS 044
-65%
(48,443) -2 %%
. _ (96.722 -61%
Mar
171 097
-63%
A r
177,856
1_66,087
167,006
May
178,840
Jun
186,920
174,551 -
170,752 -
--
---_-- ---
Jul
182,851
Aug
210,237
196,325
162,248
_
Sep
173,745
Oct
176 490
164,811
Nov
146 960
137,236
Dec
137,979
128,849
YTDTotal
$ 569,842
$ 532,135 $ 336,398
$ (233,444
-41%
$ 195,737 -37%
Annual Total
$ 2,141,720
$ 2,000,000
Franchise
Yearto
Fees Revenue
- through March
$ 259 792
$ 255,537
$ 45,703 $ (214,089)
-82% S(209,834)
-82%
7lan
Feb
200
102
274,776 274,576
137288% 274,674
269037%
Mar
----
Apr _
102,746
-
Ma
258,593
132,005
lun
_ Jul
_ _ 260,647
---
244,359
I -
Aug
_
_
Sep _
-
24,721
Oct _
259,798
258,846
-
Nov
Dec
21,683
YTDTotal
$ 259,992
$ 255,639
$ 320,478 $ 60,487
23% $ 64,8401
252i
Annual Total
1 $ 1,039,031
$ 1,040,000
I
Page 4 of 33
Monthly Financial Report
Admission Tax
Admission Tax returns are due
quarterly in January, April, July,
and October each year. January
2010 collections represent
activities conducted during the
4th quarter of 2009.
The report shows an increase of
$18k from the year before,
primarily due to the Landing 14
R 1 C' ht d'
March 2010
Admission
Ta x Revenue
Jan $
57,167
Year
$ 58,965
Date through
$ 74,777 $
March
17,610
31% $ 15,811 _ 27%
Feb
Apr
Jul
-
61,163
70,690
-
63,415
69,911
459
-
459
100% 459
100%
Oct
Nov
70,729
520
67,414
295
-
_^
YTDTotal $
57,167
$ 58,965
$ 75,236 $
18,069
32% $ 16,271
28%
Annual Total $
260,269
$ 260,000
ega Inemas t a opene In
mid -October 2008. The total 2010 revenue is $16k more than anticipated.
Licenses and Permits
These revenue sources reflect the collection of business licenses; building permits; and other licenses, fees, and permits.
Building Permit Fees and General Business Licenses constitute 83% of the revenue in this category. As of the end of March,
we have collected 2776 of the projected revenue
from licenses and permits. The percentage of
year-to-date actual to year-to-date budget is
under by 1%. Licenses and Permits totaled $633k
by the end of March. The following sections
provide detail information for Building Permits
and Business Licenses revenues.
Building Permits and Fees revenues totaled $83k
in March. The revenue swing between the high in
January and the low in February is primarily
attributable to the rush of getting permit
completed prior to the new school impact fees
took effect. The year-to-date development fees
revenue of $415k is $26k less than the budget but
is $5k higher than 2009.
Business Licenses totaled $117k since the start of
the year, which is 1% under last year and 9%
below budget. The month by month comparison
is not representative due to the payment timing
shift of employers. The General Fund portion of
the Business Licenses revenue is under the budget
by $12k and $1k below last year.
Building
Year to
Permits and Fees
Date thrDUgh March
Jan
$ 106 633 $ 114,591
$ 285,826
$ 179,192
168%
$ 171,234 1 149%
Feb
124,555 133,851
46,586
77,969
-63%
87 265 1 -65%
Mar
_ 179,330 j 192,714
114,694 I _ 123,254
125,344 134,698
82,637
.(96,693)
-54%
_ (110,076)l : 57%
Apr
_
-
-
_
May
Jun
131,705 141,534
Jul
106,810 I 114,781
-
Aug119,439
I 128,352
I
Sep
101,087 j 108,631
_ Oct _
Nov^ _
Dec
131,899 141,742
_ 82,516
169,5811 182,237
-
yiDTot. I
$ 410,519 1 $ 441,156
1 $ 415,049
$ 4,530
1%
$ 126,107 -6%
Annual Total
I $ 1,493,593 $ 1,6057o59
Business Licenses
Month
Jan
Yearto
-
$ 81,835
2010
Budget
$ 89,289
2010 vs. 2009
O
$ 77,955 $ 3,880 -5%
li 2010 vs. Budget
$ 11,334
-13%
Feb
30,180
32,929
33,440 3,260 11%
511
2%
Mar
613371
6,914
5,687 650 -10%
1,228
-18%
Apr
May
Jun -
Jul
73,055
14,185
9,352
80,579
79,709
15,477
10,204
87,918
Aug20,280
22,127
Sep
11746
1,905
Oct
84,002
91,653
_
Nov
18,937
20,662
_
Dec
3,922
4,279
YTDTota1
1 $ 118,353
1 $ 129,132
$ 117,082 $ 1,271 -1%1
$ 12,0�O9
Annual Total
1 $ 424,413
1 $ 463,067
Page 5 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
Intergovernmental
These revenue sources include federal
(direct and indirect) grants, state
grants, state shared revenues, local
grants, entitlements. State shared
revenues and Fire Districts' 25 and 40
contracts compose 63% of the total
revenues in this category. The year-to-
date total Intergovernmental revenue
Is $1.5 million or 14% of the budget.
All grant revenues also have
corresponding expenditures which will Note: Includes Cl Sales Tax
be added to the City's budget through budget adjustment.
State Shared Revenue collections
totaled $944k since the start of 2010.
Compared to the projected budget,
State Shared Revenues are over by
$45k or 5%. Compared to the prior
year, the City is collecting $53k more or
up by 6%. The actual collection that
lags budget is primarily due to the
reduced criminal justice sales tax (King
County countywide sales tax decrease).
SharedState
Revenues.
Crim Just Sales Tax
��•
$ 436,358
Date through
$ 460,855
I ��• r
$ 413,523 $ 22,835 -5% $ 47,332
-10%
Judicial Contribution
12,143
4,888
17,229
$ 5,086 1 42%
12,341
252%
CrimJust - Pop _
CrimJust -S ecPro
4,291
16,479
-
16,015
4,619
17,557
328
1,078
8%
7%
4,619
1,542
100%
30%
State DUI
3,668
1,993
3,942
274 ,
7%
1,949
98%
Lisuor Profits _ _
Li uorFxciseTax
Fuel Tax
136,619
97,810
182,824
144,264
100,081
170,583
195,587
103,016
188,118
58,967 1 43%
5,205 5%
5,295 3%
51,322
2,935
17,535
36%
3%
10%
YTDTotaI
$ 890,192
$ 898,680
$ 943,5911 $ 53,399 i
6% $ 44,911
5%
Annual Total
$ 3,986,791
$ 3,988,931
Charges for Services
These revenue sources consist of general government, public safety, plan review and inspection, culture and recreation,
and interfund/interdepartmental-sales and services. Culture, recreation, interfund/interdepartmental-sales and services
constitute 74% of the total revenue in this category. The year-to-date total charges for services are $1.3 million or 22% of
the budget. This is 3% above budget projections. The following sections provide detail information for Plan Review with
Inspection Fees, Recreation, and Interfund Services.
Plan Review and Inspection fees are $204k since
the start of the year. Compared to the budget,
the City is collecting $30k or 17% more than
anticipated revenue. Compared to the prior year,
the City is collecting $35k or 21% more.
Plan Review /Inspection
Yearto Date through
2009
2010 vs. 2009 2010 vs. Budget
Month
Jan
Actual
$ 35,851
�a %
$ 36,982 $ 98,294 $62,443 174% $61,312 166%
Feb
45,883
47,331 41,012 (4,871) -11% (6,319) -13%
Mar
86,425
89,153 64,399 22,026 -25% 24,754 ! -28%
Apr
27,659
28,532 -
May
58,715
60,569
Jun
43,085
44,445 »
Jul
61,541
63,483
Aug43,348
44,716
Sep
36,509
37,662 -
Oct
67,095
69,213
Nov _
59,883
61,773 -
Dec
109,397
112,850
YTDTotal
$ 168,159
$ 173,466 $ 203,705 $ 35,547 21%I $ 30,239 17%
Annual Total
1 $ 675,391
$ 696,708 1 1
Page 6 of 33
Monthly Financial Report
Recreation revenues totaled $227k since the start
of the year. Compared to the projected monthly
budget, the City collected $21k or 27% more.
Compared to the same month the prior year, the
City collected $18k or 22% more. Based on the
current month's collection, the City is projecting
Recreation revenues to meet the budget
projection for 2010.
The year-to-date collections for Interfund Service
revenues are $766k. Compared to the projected
budget, the revenues are above by $18k or up by
2%. Compared to the prior year, the revenues are
under by $17k or down by 2%.
Fines and Penalties
These revenue sources contain civil (penalties,
infractions, and parking), criminal (traffic, non -
traffic, and costs), and non -court fines, forfeitures,
and penalties. The table below breaks down these
fines by type. The year-to-date total fines and
penalties is $747k. This is $189k lower than a year
ago and $133k under budget. Part of the
difference is due to the timing of revenue
recognition, which contributed to the variance in
January and will be caught up at the end of the
yea r.
There are also substantial decline in the photo
enforcement fines, which we expect to continue.
The decline is due to driver behavior changes in
the areas with photo enforcement programs; and
March 2010
lap
rr•
r r
r r
� r rr
IF.
R(5,422)
� $ 65,409
$ 63 034
$ 62,673 $ 2 736 �%
72,988
70,337
64,915
(8,072) -11%
81,034
78,092
99,100
18,065 22% 21,008
27%
141,783
136 635
_May _
145,050
139,783
Jun
154,237
148,636
Jul
429,059
413,478
Aug
203,222
195,842
_ Sep
123,439
118,956
Oct 79,452
76,566
Nov
61,971
59,720
Dec
73,842
71,161
YTD Total
$ 219,431
$ 211,463
$ 226,688
$ 7,257 3% $15,226
7%
Annual Total
$ 1,631,486
$ 1,572,240
i
Year
Interfund
. D.through
Services
rr•
r r
r r
r r
rr• r� ...
4%, S 876
0%
Jan
$ 253147 i $ 241782 $ 242,658 $ 30489
Feb
243,496
232,565
273,674
30,178
_
12%' 41,110
18%
__ _
_ Mar _
286,921
274,040
249,758
(37,163)
-13_% (24,282)
-9%
pA r
-f
280,094
267,520
-
_
May
282,056
269,393
June
270,778
263,897
258,622
252,050
_
Jul
Aug_
258,386
246,785
y _Sep
265,902
253,965
Oct
266,313
281,154
273,599
254,357
268,532
261,316
-
Nov
_
Dec
_
YTDTotal
C $ 783,565 $
748,387
$ 766,090
$ 17,474
-2% $17,703
24%
Annual Total
I $ 3,225 745 $ 3
080,927
r•
Jan $ 280,849
Mar 370,244
r i
$ 262,296
347,334
r•r r r rr• r i
$ 239,080 i $ (41,769) -15% $ (23,215) -9%
IFe,2 ,794)%68) _-15%
279,311 (90,933) -25% (68,023) 20%
Apr 331,546
May 310,888
Jun 330,829
310,184
290,518
310,311
•
Jul 321,486
Aug256,668
307,795
1 238,715
Sep _ 269,199
Oct 318,272
250,627
297 690
-�
Nov 368 928
345,586
346,1351
Dec 372,972
TDTotal $ 936,219
kAn
I $ 879,630
I $ 746,724 $ 189,496 -20% $ (132,907) -15%
ual Total $3,817,008 1 $3,577,193
I
the recent change in speed enforcement
threshold in school zones.
These factors contributed to the reduction in photo enforcement revenue by 30% in February and 40% in March when
compared with the same period in 2009. At this point, the City is projecting Fines and Penalties to be under budget by
$700k by the end of 2010.
Page 7 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
Fines and
...
Penalties byType
- through March
Revenue
Civil penalties
r.•
$
2010
$ Budget2,862
2010 vs. 2009 r r
�a
$ 2,434 $ (908) -27% $ 428 -15%
Civil Infraction Penalties
Civil Parkin Infraction Penalties
1
1
a
156,960
31889
126,678 (46,221) -27%
27,571 9 661 -26%
(30,282)
4 318
-19%
-14%
Photo Enforcement Pro ram
6
585,698
495,096 {121.352} -20%
(90,602)
-15%
CrimTraffic Misdemeanor Fines _
Criminal Non Traffic Fines u -
25,020_
14,109
19,985
13,132
15,107 (9,913) -40%
4,907 (9,203) -65%
(4,878)
(8,226)
-24%
-63%
Criminal Costs
52,521
14,648
56,459
12,646
64,167 11,645 22%
1 10,765 (3,883) •27%
7,707
(1,881)
14%
-15%
__ __
Non -Court Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties
YTDTota1
$ 936,219
$ 879,630
$ 746,724 $ 189,496 -20%
$ 132,907
-15%
Annual Total
$3,817,008
$3,577,193
Included in the Fines and Penalties revenue budget is
$2.3 million from the Photo Enforcement program.
The budget was based on the prior year revenue.
The year-to-date collections from this program
equates to $495k. The associated costs includes the
equipment provided by American Traffic Solutions Inc
(ATS), we are also dedicating 2 FTEs in the Court
Division to process the increased caseload and 1.1
FTEs in the Police Department for support services.
These staffs time along with a 90% pro tem budget
and interpreter costs amounts to $362k for personnel
costs. The total costs for the program equates to
$842k which is represented in the table.
Miscellaneous
This revenue source reflects the collection of interest
and other earnings, rents, leases, and concessions,
contributions, and donations from private sources,
and other miscellaneous revenues. Interest and
other earnings along with rents, leases, and
concessions constitute 84% of the total revenue in
this category. The year-to-date total miscellaneous is
$372k. Compared to the projected year-to-date
budget, the revenues are over by $16k or up by 4%.
Photo Enforcement
Year .Date through
Program
March
.
..._..._____._-
Jan
Revenues
Budget.
$ 182,568 $ 173 461 S187,281
Expenses
..
$ 49 148
Favorable
....
S 71,970 115,311
_ Feb
175,461 166,708
135,565
49,023
72,434 63,131
Mar
258,420 245,529
172,250
48,867
71,. 70_i _ 100,280
Apr
220,085 209,106
-
49,262
May
202,192 192,106
49,207-
Jun
234,868 223 152
48,930
49,074
_ Jul
151,075 143,538
-
-
i
151,114 143,576
-
48,747
_ Sep
157,730 149,862
-
48,869
- -
Oct�
198,086 188,205
-
48,622
- -
Nov
253,056 240,433
-
49,269
- � -
Dec
183,477 174,322
51 319.
YTD Total
$ 616,448 $ 585,698
$495,096
$147,038
$ 216,373 $ 278,722
lAnnualTotall
2,368,131 $2,250,000
$590,336
Actuals of Revenues and Expenses
Miscellaneous Revenues by
-
Year ... through March
Month
r r•
r r r�
r r
� r•
r
Ja
$ 143,245
$ 129,038 $ 170,998
$ 27,753
19%
41959 33%
Fn
Feb
192,680
173,570 86,124
(106,555)
-55%
(87,446) -50%
_Mar _
59,923
53,980 115,122
55,199
92%
61,142 113%
Apr
100,349
90,397
May
156,161
140,673
Jun
100,207
90,269
Jul
219,671 197,884
Aug _
80,681 i
72,680 '
Sep
131,358
118,330
_
Oct
76,125 68,575 _
73,002 65,762
Nov
Dec
196,289
176,822
YTDTotal
$ 395,848
$ 356,588 $ 372,244
$(23,604)
-6%
$ 15,655 4%
Annual Total
$1.529,692
$1,377,980
Miscellaneous Revenues byType
Yearto - through
Interests and Other Earnings
rr•
$ 111,818
1 1
$ •112,386
r r
$ 73,008
010 vs. 2009r
$(38,810) -35% $(39,378)
•35%
Rents, Leases, a_ndConcessions
232.834
186,521
241,192
8,358I 4% 54,671
29%
Contributions/Donations from Private So,-rces
29,115
28,957
29,179
64 0% 222
1%
Other
22,081
28,724
28,864
6,783 31% 140
0%
YrD Total
$ 395,848
5 356,588)
$ 372,244
$ (23,604) 66%
$ 15,655
4%
Annual Total
$1,529,692
$1,377,980.
Page 8 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
EXPENSES
The City has completed the year and our operating costs are running below the trends from prior years. Overall the City has
expended 23% of its budgeted general governmental expenditures. The table on page 1 gives the expenditure budgets for
each department. Some of the budgeted expenditures will be carried forward from 2009 to complete projects we have
started and not yet completed as well as budgeted expenditures related to grants.
ENTERPRISE FUNDS
The table below gives an analysis of all City Enterprise funds. Displayed are the year-to-date revenues and expenditures for
each enterprise. Included in each fund are the capital revenues and expenditures.
REVENUES:
Licenses and permits
Grants
Charges for services
Interdepartmental services
Rents, leases, and miscfees
Interest and other misc
TOTAL REVENUES
EXPENSES:
Utilitybilling
Utilitysystems
Utility maintenance
Transportation
Golf
TOTALEXPENSES
AMOUNTAVAILABLE FOR DEBTSERVICE
DEBT SERVICE:
Principal
Interest and other debt service costs
TOTAL DEBT SERVICE
CAPITAL PROJECTS
TRANSFERS IN/(OUT)
CHANGE IN FUND BALANCE
BEGINNING FUND BALANCE,January1, 2010
ENDING FUND BALANCE, March 31, 2010
Surface Bond/Rate
Airport
Solid Waste
Golf Course
Water Utility
Wastewater
Water Stabilization
Utility
Utility
Utility Funds
-
-
16,125
14,550
61,220
- -
-
-
176,162
2,755
251,283 3,737,155
2,265,531
4,262,126
1,237,322
838
69,939
26,578
114,385
306,549
54,933 24,000
26,293
-
-
48
48
33,149
24,767
24,767
41,149
2,828,389
610,905
541,692
517,939
-
35,832
1,129,452
2,159,166
394,946
242,660 -
-
-
-
385,645
242,660 385,645
2,897,370
1,765,124
2,725,625
954,034
131,608 75,431
963,088
694,991
1,630,294
629,661 48
- 5,673
-
-
-
-
393
875
350
525
F nFF
-
R7F
:tFn
c?s
86,871
159,439 -
185,384
285,486
286,462
44,737
(240,936) 963,088
508,732
1,344,458
342,674 48
034 7
122 7
Page 9 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
INTERNAL SERVICE FUNDS
The table below gives an analysis of all City Internal Service Funds. Displayed are the year-to-date revenues and
expenditures for each internal service. Included in each fund are the capital revenues and expenditures.
REVENUES:
Grants
Charges forservices
EquIpment renta I m&o
Telecommunications
Printand mail
Communications
Facilities
Data cards and cell phones
I T s e rvi ce contracts
Interest and other misc
Internal service fund misc:
Vehicle/equipment capital recovery
Insurance premiums
Worker's compensation / unemployment
Benefit premiums
Other misc
Disposal ofcapital assets
Insurance recoveries
TOTAL REVENUES
EXPENSES:
Communications
Equipment rental
Facilities
Healthcare
Information technology
Print and mail
Retiree healthcare
Risk management
TOTAL EXPENSES
AMOUNTAVAILABLE FOR DEBTSERVICE
DEBT SERVICE:
Principal
Interest and other debt service costs
TOTAL DEBT SERVICE
CAPITAL PROJECTS
TRANSFERSIN
TRANSFERS (OUT)
CHANGE IN FUND BALANCE
BEGINNING FUND BALANCE, January 1, 2010
ENDING FUND BALANCE, March 31, 2010
Equipment
Information
Retiree
Facilities
Communications
Insurance
Healthcare
Rental
Technology
Healthcare
525,164
490,633
71,436
-
26,834
84,366
-
135,006
-
1,044,073
-
28,094
-
-
62,686
-
-
-
14,367
5,939
386
333
18,125
17,415
9,657
359,714
249,170
-
-
-
-
-
-
552,217
325,649
-
-
-
2,748,443
439,169
194,716
-
43,124
39,999
9,838
899.245
934.792
1.044.459
219.705
939.115
3.000,S73
458.664
480,071
750,700
-
955,133
96,713
2,225,669
121,206
272,590
1,015,733
480,071
750,700
955,133
217,919 1,015,733 2,225,669 272,590
419,174
184,092
89,326
1,786 (76,618) 774,904 186,074
373,204
129,618
25,000
29,408
Page 10 of 33
Monthly Financial Report
THE SCORE
March 2010
The South Correctional Entity (SCORE) is a public development authority (PDA) that was formed to build and operate a new
822-bed misdemeanor jail in South King County. SCORE is made up of cities located in South King County and they are
Auburn, Burien, Des Moines, Federal Way, Renton, SeaTac, and Tukwila. The City of Renton is the principle of the PDA as
well as acting as the treasurer and fiscal agent for SCORE during the planning and development phase. The design and
permit work, construction bid opening, and bond sell has been completed.
The current estimated total development and construction cost for the project is around $95 million, including capitalized
interest and startup costs. The bonding is $87 million with the remaining $8 million to be financed by member
contributions. The City of Renton is obligated for 36% of the bonds issued.
The table below lists the year to date financing sources and uses of the SCORE:
SCORE
REVENUES:
Interlocal city contribution
Auburn
-
B u ri e n
4,000
Des Moines
-
Federal Way
Renton
-
Seatac
3,000
Tukwila
-
Interestand othermisc
85,609
Bond proceeds
-
Tax Credit (BABs)
TOTAL REVENUES
92,609
EXPENSES:
Salaries and wages
Benefits
-
Supplies
604
Professional services
398,996
Intergovernmental
54,966
Construction
9,682,726
TOTAL EXPENSES
10,137,292
AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR DEBT SERVICE
(10,044,683)
DEBT SERVI CE:
Pri nci pa I
-
Interestand other debt service costs
860,942
TOTAL DEBT SERVICE
860,942
CHANGE IN FUND BALANCE (10,905,624)
BEGINNING FUND BALANCE,Januaryl, 2010 80,644,637
ENDING FUND BALANCE, March 31, 2010 69,739,013
Page 11 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
FUND BALANCE
Page 13 shows the ending fund balance as of March 2010. The City's fund balance is a combination of current
deficit/surplus of funds which have accrued from unexpended operating budgets and unanticipated excess revenues and
from balances accumulated from prior years.
The prior year balances (or beginning balance) includes funds identified as being reserved for specific purposes or required
to meet current year appropriations. These balances also provide financial stability to the City's operation during uncertain
times and provide a layer of security to bondholders.
At the end of March, the City has $4.8 million reported in combined general governmental fund balance of current year
operating budget, which is approximately 5% of budgeted operating expenditures. This is a decrease of $7.1 million from
the beginning balance of January 1, 2010. March's ending fund balance is under the anticipated General Governmental
Fund Balance of $5.7 million by $831k. Although the ending fund balance is under projections, it is consistent with prior
year trends since the City will not received the first portion of property tax revenues for 2010 until April and May.
CONTACT INFORMATION
This report is prepared by the Finance Division of the FIT Department. For additional financial information, please also
review our website: http://www.rentonwa.govL. For any questions about the report, please feel free to contact us at
hnguyen@rentonwa.gov or iwang@rentonwa.gov.
Page 12 of 33
Monthly Financial Report March 2010
City of Renton
All Funds - Revenue, Expenditures and Fund Balances
Cash Basis through March 31, 2010
Balance
Budgeted
Revenue
Total Funds
Budgeted
Expenditure
Funds
01/01/2020
Revenue
03/31/10
Available
Expenditure
03/31/10
Ending Balance
GENERAL GOVERNMENT FUNDS:
11,955,285
97,838,698
15,590,071
27,545,356
97,838,698
22,695,538
4,849,818
000General
8,535,013
74,198,436
11,941,595
20,476,608
71,418,283
17,846,883
2,629,725
001 Community Services
958,009
9,544,866
1,857,318
2,815,327
10,354,293
2,026,750
788,577
003 Street
1,391,648
7,149,882
1,266,240
2,657,888
8,476,980
2,078,338
579,550
004 Community Dev Block Grant
(6,528)
294,148
81,177
74,649
296,503
68,480
6,169
005 Museum
64,705
192,621
112
64,817
194,120
46,726
18,091
006Ubra ry
706,011
1,888,252
19,115
725,126
2,544,263
500,663
224,463
009 Farmers Market
60,571
44,280
10,900
71,471
34,311
1,308
70,163
010Fire Memorial
936
-
(700)
236
-
-
236
011 Fire Health & Wellness
4,303
25,000
6,612
10,915
25,000
10,915
031 Park Memorial
175,066
-
568
175,634
-
-
175,634
201 Ltd GO Bonds Gen Govt Debt
1,448
2,033,177
172,343
173,791
1,984,625
2,400
171,391
215 Gen Govt Misc Debt Service
64,103
2,468,036
234,791
298,894
2,510,320
123,990
174,904
SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS:
102Arterial Street
200,686
620,000
246,227
446,913
620,000
-
446,913
108 Leased City Properties
837,613
941,533
324,923
1,162,536
581,940
476,218
686,318
110 Hotel Motel
247,828
245,000
87,455
335,283
245,000
115,834
219,449
118 Reserve for Paths & Trails
3,264
-
14
3,278
-
-
3,278
125 1% For Art
143,796
15,000
472
144,268
50,000
86
144,182
127 Cable Communication
89,391
85,000
13,826
103,217
85,674
8,500
94,717
135 Springbrook Wetlands Bank
459,528
1,499
461,027
461,027
DEBT SERVICE FUNDS:
2191989 Unlimited GO Bonds
79,340
79,340
1,388
79,340
CAPITAL PROJECT FUNDS (CIP):
303 Community DevMitigation
1,066,593
60,000
7,384
1,073,977
-
1,073,977
304 Fire Mitigation
2,363,522
100,000
19,401
2,382,923
560,000
2,382,923
305Transportation Mitigation
2,167,133
200,000
(56,970)
2,110,163
700,OD0
2,110,163
316 Municipal Facilities CIP
6,933,186
730,000
212,530
7,145,716
1,653,454
461,949
6,683,767
317 Transportation CIP
2,892,341
15,692,002
3,188,960
6,081,301
16,126,973
2,279,622
3,801,679
318 So Lake WA Infrastructure Proj
114,039
-
373
114,412
-
-
114,412
_ 326 Housing Opportunity
201,653
661
202,314
202,314
ENTERPRISE FUNDS:
402Airpon
415,929
1,917,163
310,979
726,908
1,001,800
242,660
494,248
403Solid Waste Utility
326,034
15,000,000
3,860,457
4,186,491
15,000,000
2,897,371
1,289,120
404 Golf Course
798,278
2,483,545
309,509
1,107,787
2,566,837
434,186
673,601
422 Airport Capital
633,154
1,578,000
63,290
696,444
1,578,000
86,871
609,573
424 Golf Course Capital
287,523
150,000
706
288,229
150,000
116,964
171,265
INTERNAL SERVICE FUNDS:
501 Equipment Repair/Replacement
4,593,399
3,631,241
899,245
5,492,644
2,791,684
853,275
4,639,369
5021nsurance
6,039,509
3,287,584
939,114
6,978,623
4,170,106
1,015,733
5,962,890
503Information Services
1,647,931
4,105,387
934,792
2,582,723
3,715,819
880,319
1,702,404
504 Facilities
91,175
4,555,485
1,044,459
1,135,634
4,176,210
980,133
155,501
505Communications
111,818
1,049,671
219,705
331,523
877,560
247,327
84,196
512Insurance, Healthcare
4,792,452
12,358,471
3,000,573
7,793,025
12,462,810
2,225,669
5,567,356
522Insurance, Leoffl Retirees HC
2,820,473
2,235,684
458,663
3,279,136
2,248,907
272,590
3,006,546
FIDUCIARY FUNDS:
611 Firemen's Pension
4,332,817
300,000
4,553
4,337,370
550,475
102,791
4,234,579
Balance
Budgeted
Revenue
Total Funds
Budgeted
Expenditure
Funds
01/01/2010
Revenue
03/31/10
Available
Expenditure
03/31/10
Ending Balance
ENTERPRISE FUNDS: COMBINED UTILITIES
13,931,093
42,352,430
8,399,776
22,330,869
42,554,258
6,203,863
16,127,006
405WaterUtility
4,294,833
11,316,610
2,406,033
6,700,866
11,319,531
1,765,998
4:934,161
406 Waste Water Utility
1,887,815
6,070,737
1,414,580
3,302,395
6,389,869
821,769
2:480,626
407Surface Water Utility
2,448,845
5,768,148
1,379,761
3,828,606
5,647,923
954,559
2874,047
416 IGng County Metro
46,504
11,211,935
2,902,967
2,949,471
11,211,935
1,904,205
1045,266
425 Water Utility Construction
2,862,275
2,960,000
54,081
2,916,356
2,960,000
185,384
2,730,972)
426 Waste Water Construction
841,219
2,775,000
38,373
879,592
2,775,000
285,486
594,106
427Surface Water Construction
1,533,997
2,250,000
203,933
1,737,930
2,250,000
286,462
1,451,468
461 Waterworks Bond Reserve
-
-
-
-
-
471 Waterworks Rate Stabilization
15,605
48
15,653
15,653
481 Future W/S Bond Proceeds
-
-
-
- 1
Note: Waterworks Utility Funds are managed as a system and are designated by the dotted lines
Page 13 of 33
City of Renton
General Government Financial Position
2010 Budget Year
General Government Summary
$ Difference
w/beginning
Revenues
Expenditures
over(under)
balance
11,955,285
January
4,881,556
7,161,528
(2,279,972)
9,675,313
February
10,472,029
15,011,456
(4,539,427)
7,415,858
March
15,590,071
22,695,538
(7,105,467)
4,849,818
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Rev/Exp
110,000,000
100,000,000
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIevenues
� FYnp nrl iti i rpc
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Difference
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
(1,000,000)
(2,000,000)
(3,000,000)
(4,000,000)
(5,000,000)
(6,000,000)
(7,000,000)
Page 14 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
General
YTD
Annual %
Government
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
4,878,237
4,881,556
0.07%
Feb
10,773,019
10,472,029
-2.79%
Mar
16,233,397
15,590,071
-3.96%
Apr
29,019,936
May
43,806,298
Jun
48,958,484
Jul
55,020,570
Aug
60,711,847
Sep
65,338,639
Oct
76,560,738
Nov
92,025,122
Dec
97,838,698
Percent of budget
15.93%
YTD
Annual%
Property Tax
Budget
Actual
over(under)
Jan
9,635
218,705
2169.90%
Feb
320,118
489,513
52.92%
Mar
982,841
1,037,146
5.53%
Apr
9,231,227
May
16,097,311
Jun
16,213,191
Jul
16,320,354
Aug
16,388,472
Sep
16,644,516
Oct
22,547,053
Nov
31,012,799
Dec
31,364,643
Percent of budget
3.31%
Millions
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
Millions
$33
$30
$27
$24
$21
$18
$15
$12
$9
$6
$3
Total Revenue
General Government
Property Tax
Iap - � ,mac 13� PJ� 9-11 a& lk�!011 < ec
Page 15 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD Annual % Millions
Sales Tax Budget Actual over (under) $21
Jan 1,688,260 1,442,659-14.55% $18
Feb 3,848,016 3,376,692-12.25%
Mar 5,540,865 4,818,562 •13.04% $15
Apr 7,161,203 $12
May 8,888,836
Jun 10,537,549 $9
Jul 12,138,293 $6
Aug 13,935,185
Sep 15,628,456 $3
Oct 17,436,835 $-
Nov 18,929,142
Dec 20,857,000
Percent of budget 23.10%
Note: Includes Funds 108, 318, 501, and 503. Excludes CJ Sales Tax and Natural Gas Use Tax.
YTD
Annual %
Utility Tax
Budget
Actual
over(under)
Jan
1,379,262
1,282,930
-6.98%
Feb
2,829,096
2,637,863
-6.76%
Mar
4,050,000
3,933,596
-2.87%
Apr
5,225,375
May
6,516,282
Jun
7,560,617
Jul
8,546,617
Aug
9,718,578
Sep
10,760,779
Oct
11,813,935
Nov
12,878,332
Dec
14,228,000
Percent of budget
27.65%
Note: Includes Natural Gas Use Tax.
Sales Tax
>a1, A? lac 0 `SaJ -ip �� PO 49 CPI �o O�
Page 16 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Licenses/
YTD
Annual %
Permits
Budget
Actual
over(under)
Jan
220,191
394,387
79.11%
Feb
415,373
496,041
19.42%
Mar
640,289
633,007
-1.14%
Apr
866,016
May
1,046,903
Jun
1,224,807
Jul
1,451,179
Aug
1,631,518
Sep
1,759,093
Oct
2,024,220
Nov
2,153,967
Dec
2,386,376
Percent of budget
26.53%
Note: Includes Fund
318.
F-Interg,W]l
YTD
Annual%
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
338,139
371,847
9.97%
Feb
787,424
1,023,691
30.01%
Mar
1,195,183
1,536,757
28.58%
Apr
1,622,082
May
4,801,888
Jun
5,177,187
Jul
5,578,231
Aug
6,648,613
Sep
7,098,457
Oct
7,710,824
Nov
10,857,610
Dec
11,192,951
Percent of budget
13.73%
Note: Includes CJ Sales Tax.
Millions
$2.40
$2.10
$1.80
$1.50
$1.20
$0.90
$0.60
$0.30
Licenses & Permits
lac Q110 mac V:0 1Jo ;�, PO I:p Cc, �o O�
Millions Intergovernmental
$12 rN1111 Budget 1
$11 -Actual
$10 Last Year
$9
$8
$7
$6 ..
$5 -
$4
$3 ki�
$2
$1
$-
,ao
Page 17 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Chargesfor
YTD
Annual%
Svcs
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
391,334
445,172
13.76%
Feb
791,905
869,415
9.79%
Mar
1,295,331
1,336,778
3.20%
Apr
1,774,948
May
2,308,362
Jun
2,817,547
Jul
3,611,251
Aug
4,145,264
Sep
4,604,070
Oct
5,058,558
Nov
5,489,415
Dec
5,997,460
Percent of budget
22.29%
Fines &
YTD
Annual %
Forfeits
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
262,296
239,080
-8.85%
Feb
532,296
467,413
-12.19%
Mar
879,630
746,724
-15-11%
Apr
1,189,814
May
1,480,333
Jun
1,790,644
Jul
2,098,439
Aug
2,337,154
Sep
2,587,781
Oct
2,88S,471
Nov
3,231,058
Dec
3,577,193
Percent of budget
20.87%
Millions
$7
Charges for Services
lac �? fat V$t `SaJ ,Jo �� PO 49 OP" �o O�
Page 18 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
FOthe,T,,e,]
YTD
Annual %
Budget
Actual
over(under)
Jan
424,298
315,778
-25.58%
Feb
887,009
854,174
-3.70%
Mar
1,210,805
1,175,121
-2.95%
Apr
1,527,046
May
2,129,929
Jun
3,055,413
Jul
3,781,909
Aug
4,301,294
Sep
4,584,474
Oct
5,408,386
Nov
5,791,753
Dec
6,297,095
Percent of budget
18.66%
F—lw7.,cBudget
YTD
Annual%
Actual
over(under)
Jan
129,034
170,998
32.52%
Feb
302,604
257,122
-15.03%
Mar
356,594
372,244
4.39%
Apr
446,989
May
587,653
Jun
677,925
Jul
1,416,302
Aug
1,488,990
Sep
1,066,818
Oct
1,135,400
Nov
1,201,158
Dec
1,377,980
Percent of budget
27.01%
Millions
$7
Other Taxes
Page 19 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Revenue Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD
Annual %
REET
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
229,560
71,303
-68.94%
Feb
298,320
178,545
-40.15%
Mar
480,120
487,709
1.58%
Apr
620,064
May
925,800
Jun
1,135,488
Jul
1,335,888
Aug
1,644,120
Sep
1,850,592
Oct
2,058,960
Nov
2,279,304
Dec
2,400,000
Percent of budget
20.32%
Note: Combines Funds 201, 215, 316, and 318
Page 20 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
General
YTD
Annual %
Government
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
7,055,149
7,161,528
1.51%
Feb
15,023,132
15,011,456
-0.08%
Mar
22,448,111
22,695,538
1.10%
Apr
30,034,524
May
37,370,469
Jun
45,896,133
Jul
54,113,605
Aug
61,992,556
Sep
69,771,711
Oct
77,459,876
Nov
85,382,853
Dec
97,838,698
Percent of budget expended
23.20%
YTD
Annual%
Legislative
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
21,938
21,032
-4.13%
Feb
44,183
43,671
-1.16%
Mar
68,592
65,280
4.83%
Apr
91,263
May
113,769
Jun
136,495
Jul
158,472
Aug
180,456
Sep
202,484
Oct
224,540
Nov
246,799
Dec
267,957
Percent of budget expended
24.36%
Millions
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
Total Expenditures
General Government
1a"1 Sea mac 0Q I;p ;�, vo 41, &'- �o O�
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
Legislative
,ate Few mac V: � tea, ,:p ;P $, 5.0 O& �0 p c
Page 21 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD
Annual %
Court Services
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
152,504
168,470
10.47%
Feb
317,136
328,318
3.53%
Mar
482,634
499,117
3.42%
Apr
655,111
May
827,668
Jun
1,002,217
Jul
1,170,590
Aug
1,338,240
Sep
1,505,085
Oct
1,673,117
Nov
1,832,379
Dec
2,011,393
Percent of budget expended
24.81%
YTD
Annual%
Executive
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
105,591
134,784
27.65%
Feb
250,653
272,736
8.81%
Mar
385,511
407,609
5.73%
Apr
521,891
May
654,166
Jun
785,689
Jul
935,460
Aug
1,087,274
Sep
1,225,811
Oct
1,370,153
Nov
1,499,437
Dec
1,635,047
Percent of budget expended
24.93%
Millions Executive
$1.80
Budget
$1.50 Actual
Last Year
$1.20
$0.90
$0.60
$0.30 00
Page 22 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD
Annual %
Finance
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
231,228
145,053
-37.27%
Feb
387,182
286,770
-25.93%
Mar
562,096
443,082
-21.17%
Apr
721,488
May
901,039
Jun
1,058,643
Jul
1,218,526
Aug
1,384,265
Sep
1,543,696
Oct
1,663,318
Nov
1,820,765
Dec
1,964,890
Percent of budget expended
22.55%
YTD
Annual %
City Attorney
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
106,795
127,162
19.07%
Feb
246,680
266,526
8.05%
Mar
403,070
400,465
-0.65%
Apr
549,408
May
691,207
Jun
825,807
Jul
1,028,793
Aug
1,108,058
Sep
1,244,944
Oct
1,384,635
Nov
1,520,418
Dec
1,621,295
Percent of budget
expended
24.70%
Millions
$2.10
$1.80
$1.50
$1.20
$0.90
$0.60
$0.30
Finance
Iap �? `Say 0 `SaJ IJp >� V0 le &II IIIoI pe
Millions
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40 -
$0.20
City Attorney
Budget
-Actual
--- Last Yea r
>a"I IIV `1`ac PQc `SaJ lip ;�, PJ :PQ op,
�o Oe
Page 23 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Human
YTD
Annual %
Resources
Budget
Actual
over(under)
Jan
62,623
71,457
14.11%
Feb
147,649
141,160
•4.39%
Mar
228,975
213,772
-6.64%
Apr
310,346
May
392,750
Jun
470,604
Jul
544,958
Aug
617,312
Sep
693,968
Oct
769,666
Nov
841,727
Dec
913,669
Percent of budget expended
23.40%
Millions
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10
Human Resources
Nb 11, >Sac PQc �Sa� >�c >J\ PJ� 5eQ do , Oe°
YTD
Annual %
Millions
Publ
Public Works
Budget
Actual
over (under)
$1.20
=" Budg(
Jan 40,311 42,532
5.51%
Feb 86,173
86,114
-0.07%
$0.90
-Actua
�-- Last Y
Mar 133,892
129,351
-3.39%
Apr 179,050
May 221,237
$0.60
Jun 264,331
Jul 308,727
Aug 353,278
$0.30
Sep 394,646
Oct 441,919
$-
Nov 483,769
Dec 518,399
Percent of budget expended 24.95%
Note: For comparative purposes
history does not include Development
Svcs division (now in CED).
Page 24 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Other City
YTD
Annual %
Services
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
414,785
348,715
-15.93`Yo
Feb
819,456
701,408
-14.41%
Mar
1,210,803
1,136,033
-6.18%
Apr
1,824,496
May
1,977,632
Jun
2,363,946
Jul
2,580,253
Aug
2,956,550
Sep
3,332,176
Oct
3,741,593
Nov
4,083,716
Dec
4,792,981
Percent of budget expended
23.70%
YTD
Annual %
Police
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
2,133,213
2,260,619
5.97%
Feb
4,451,419
4,238,853
-4.78%
Mar
6,690,934
6,677,267
-0.20%
Apr
8,707,077
May
11,038,812
Jun
13,268,939
Jul
15,720,229
Aug
17,814,787
Sep
20,258,345
Oct
22,428,281
Nov
25,004,372
Dec
27,610,835
Percent of budget
expended
24.18%
Page 25 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Fire & Emerg
YTD
Annual %
Svc
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
1,794,155
1,768,398
-1.44%
Feb
4,263,621
4,239,777
-0.56%
Mar
6,014,430
5,943,458
-1.18%
Apr
7,691,011
May
9,423,488
Jun
11,146,615
Jul
12,943,323
Aug
14,652,309
Sep
16,470,345
Oct
18,249,428
Nov
19,955,330
Dec
21,802,109
Percent of budget expended
27.26%
YTD
Annual %
City Clerk
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
77,013
48,025
-37.64%
Feb
148,683
92,936
-37.49%
Mar
257,863
146,137
-43.33%
Apr
393,130
May
465,321
Jun
538,843
Jul
603,120
Aug
661,523
Sep
723,147
Oct
781,484
Nov
843,676
Dec
931,014
Percent of budget expended
15.70%
Millions
$24
$21
$18
$15
$12
$9
$6
$3
Sao Few fat PQ� �aJ �J� nJ V0 49 CPI
Millions
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
Fire & Emergency Services
Budget
-Actual
Last Year
i
Ar" I
Citv Clprk
j
$0.00
Page 26 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Human
YTD
Annual %
Services
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan 31,079
40,228
29.44%
Feb 68,328
72,960
6.78%
Mar 96,869
139,024
43.52%
Apr 238,680
May 297,161
Jun 358,780
Jul 473,188
Aug 525,725
Sep 566,364
Oct 689,219
Nov 744,407
Dec 869,096
Percent of budget expended
16.00%
Note: General Fund only
Hearing
YTD
Annual %
Examiner
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
16,707
14,619
-12.50%
Feb
33,528
29,129
-13.12%
Mar
50,066
43,412
-13.29%
Apr
67,019
May
83,535
Jun
99,983
Jul
117,131
Aug
133,757
Sep
150,300
Oct
166,956
Nov
183,659
Dec
200,440
Percent of budget expended
21.66%
Millions
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10
$0.00
Human Svcs (Comm Svcs)
04 Q�c
Hearing Examiner
$220,000
$200,000 .0Budget
$180,000 -Actual
-- Last Year l
$160,000
$140,000 -
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000 -
$20,000
$- �.
lac �e� `Sat PQc `Sad
Page 27 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD Annual % Community & Economic
CED Budget Actual over (under) Millions
$7 So Development
Jan 482,302 555,670 15.21%
Feb 1,022,373 1,097,029 7.30%
$6.00
Mar 1,549,696 1,602,874 3.43%
Apr 2,048,262
$4.50
May 2,563,781
Jun 3,062,722 $3.00
Jul 3,611,458
Aug 4,140,980 $1.50
Sep 4,659,701
Oct 5,189,913 $_
Nov 5,702,230
Dec 6,279,159
Percent of budget expended 25.53%
Note: For comparative purposes history includes Development Svcs division (previously in Public Works).
Note: General Fund only
YTD
Annual %
General Fund
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
5,662,041
5,746,764
1.50%
Feb
11,966,133
11,897,388
-0.57%
Mar
17,701,021
17,846,883
0.82%
Apr
23,540,894
May
29,107,950
Jun
34,864,263
Jul
40,891,252
Aug
46,445,452
Sep
52,410,307
Oct
58,082,347
Nov
64,197,180
Dec
71,418,283
Percent of budget expended
24.99%
>ac <a"0 I Jp >J\ v o° 49 O�w 04 Q�c
Millions General Fund
$75 —
e�e Budget
Actual
$60 Last Year
$45 =
$30 - �y
$15
$-
>ao fee `Sat PQt `? >J� 1; NJ_
Page 28 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
Community
YTD
Annual %
Svcs Fund
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
621,982
570,605
-8.26%
Feb
1,400,832
1,321,394
-5.67%
Mar
2,156,281
2,026,750
-6.01%
Apr
2,938,134
May
3,741,731
Jun
4,572,145
Jul
5,702,834
Aug
6,858,683
Sep
7,709,910
Oct
8,544,362
Nov
9,406,564
Dec
10,354,293
Percent of budget expended
19.57%
YTD
Annual%
Street Fund
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
596,271
641,040
7.51%
Feb
1,266,461
1,365,252
7.80%
Mar
1,943,687
2,078,338
6.93%
Apr
2,643,546
May
3,357,223
Jun
4,032,499
Jul
4,764,656
Aug
5,522,667
Sep
6,242,278
Oct
6,950,276
Nov
7,651,237
Dec
8,476,980
Percent of budget expended
24.52`Y
Millions Community Svcs Fund
$14
�i Budget
$12 Actual
Last Year
$10 l
1
$8
$6
$4
$2 `
Sao ��v fat PQc �aJ �Jc �J� pJ4° �eQ do ,
Millions
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
Street Fund
Page 29 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
YTD
Annual%
CDBG
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
19,605
13,958
-28.80%
Feb
41,985
40,304
-4.00%
Mar
67,262
68,480
1.81%
Apr
93,576
May
114,017
Jun
134,236
Jul
153,461
Aug
189,021
Sep
206,595
Oct
239,231
Nov
260,683
Dec
296,503
Percent of budget expended
23.10%
YTD
Annual %
Library Fund
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
178,200
173,794
-2.47%
Feb
369,656
229,125
-38.02%
Mar
573,477
500,663
-12.70%
Apr
777,934
May
977,023
Jun
1,176,467
Jul
1,368,254
Aug
1,579,352
Sep
1,772,156
Oct
1,974,603
Nov
2,165,372
Dec
2,544,263
Percent of budget expended
19.68%
Millions Library Fund
$3.00 1 -
Budget
$2.50 —Actual
Last Year _
$2.00 —
$1.50 -
$1.00
$0.50 -
01, Oec
Page 30 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Expenditure Analysis - 2010 Budget Year
FM,se7u,Fu,d
YTD
Annual %
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
15,829
15,310
-3.28%
Feb
32,775
31,141
-4.99%
Mar
49,002
46,726
-4.64%
Apr
65,543
May
82,433
Jun
99,543
Jul
115,981
Aug
132,242
Sep
148,372
Oct
164,641
Nov
180,555
Dec
194,120
Percent of budget
expended
24.07%
Note: Prior to 2009, Museum was part of the Library Fund
YTD
Annual %
LTGO Funds
Budget
Actual
over (under)
Jan
-
N/A
Feb
126,390
100.00%
Mar
22,250
126,390
468.04%
Apr
22,250
May
22,250
Jun
1,078,472
Jul
1,078,472
Aug
1,078,472
Sep
1,078,472
Oct
1,290,948
Nov
1,293,331
Dec
4,494,945
Percent of budget expended
2.81%
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
Museum Fund
:ii.13 Budget
Actual
Last Year
>at� Quo `Sat PQt `SaJ >Jp >�� QJo° 4Q
Millions LTGO Funds
$5.00 -
$4.50 i -Fa-� BudKet
Page 31 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Enterprise Fund Financial Report - 2010 Budget Year
Millions
Utilities
Budget
Revenue
Expense
$50
Jan
2,457,102
3,901,859
2,612,849
$45
Feb
5,532,784
7,676,067
5,998,348
$40
Mar
8,458,919
11,963,798
8,343,902
$35
Apr
10,568,438
$30
May
14,342,459
$25
Jun
18,820,257
$20
Jul
22,986,726
$15
Aug
27,032,198
$10
Sep
30,031,294
$5
Oct
33,032,203
$0
Nov 36,377,070
Dec 45,317,258
Percent of budget expended 18.41%
Note: Operations only, excludes bond proceeds and transfers to capital.
Airport
Budget
Revenue
Expense
Jan
66,269
94,268
72,717
Feb
159,667
204,281
156,869
Mar
250,901
310,979
242,660
Apr
329,772
May
438,337
Jun
517,870
Jul
598,355
Aug
688,817
Sep
759,575
Oct
838,546
Nov
913,982
Dec
1,001,800
Percent of budget expended
24.22%
Note: Operations only.
Utilities
Page 32 of 33
City of Renton
Monthly Enterprise Fund Financial Report - 2010 Budget Year
Golf Course
Budget
Revenue
Expense
Jan
129,394
68,826
97,947
Feb
258,326
174,258
215,710
Mar
479,768
309,509
434,186
Apr
618,377
May
813,533
Jun
1,066,444
Jul
1,232,903
Aug
1,384,039
Sep
1,549,779
Oct
1,857,389
Nov
1,994,766
Dec
2,566,837
Percent of budget expended
16.92%
Note: Operations only.
Millions
$2.70
$2.40
$2.10
$1.80
$1.50
$1.20
$0.90
$0.60
$0.30
Golf Course
Page 33 of 33
04/22/2010
WCLS Libraries in Renton
City Council Workshop
April 21, 2010 r..,
City ofIj
_
Community and Economic Development
Menton/KCLS
Agreement
Upon annexation, Renton will build two library
branches:
No established timeframe
Renton/KCLS jointly sites and designs
Renton funds construction
KCLS owns and operates once constructed
Jl.
RENTON
04/22/2010
Future "East Kent"
branch on Benson Hwy
Expansion of Fairwood
New/expanded Skyway
Timing dependent on
Renton progress
KCLS would prefer a
more equitable
distribution in Renton's
core area
RENTON
Renton Area
Libraries
1t v
Falrwoo0
Neat COWaatoa
KCLS Desires
New Downtown library:—20,000 SF
New "Highlands" library:—10,000 SF
KCLS siting decisions "balance the needs of library
patrons, community, local government and KCLS"
Three "fundamental factors"
Locations must provide for optimal service to the most
number of residents within entire system
Providing an equitable level of service across entire system
Maximizing use is more valuable than return on land or
building investment
RENTON '�'t•,v�oZ
2
04/22/2010
Downtown
Considerations
Stand-alone structure:
Expand Pavilion
Building (less costly,
quicker to implement.
Land ownership?)
Other sites?
Mixed -use structure:
RTC could use as much as 20,000 SF (State approval process,
couldn't commit until mid-2011); City Hall (demand unclear,
financially impractical today)
Former McLendon site? Others?
RENTON
Highlands
Considerations
NE 4th Corridor
KCLS preference
Stand-alone
Sunset and Harrington
SR 900 (Issaquah to 1-405)
Consistent with Sunset Area
Community Investment Strategy
Stand-alone or mixed -use, as a
part of Sunset Terrace
redevelopment (2Q 2012
construction), or
Stand-alone (less complicated,
potentially quicker)
RENTON
3
04/22/2010
Available Funding
General fund currently allocated to libraries =
$2 million (available 2011 and beyond)
Depending on term and interest rate, could
support debt service on a range of investments:
$15 million, paid off in 9 years
• $33 million, paid off in 30 years
Existing Highlands Library property appraised at
$1.05 million
May be necessary for other aspects of Sunset Area
Community Investment Strategy implementation
u.
RENTON
Recommendafie%-
Maintain full General Fund levy in 2011 to fund debt service
for library improvements
Pursue shortest financing term possible, while meeting project goals
Downtown:
1) Advance notion of expanding Pavilion Building
2) Explore future partnership with RTC in conjunction with longer -
term City facility needs
3) Maintain existing library building for future civic uses TBD
Highlands:
1) Focus on Sunset & Harrington
2) Explore availability/cost of public and private parcels at intersection
3) Continue to support Sunset Terrace redevelopment, including
analysis of library and/or public plaza on RHA land
RENTON
0