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HomeMy WebLinkAboutC_Public_Comment_38.a_180430.email_attch2of51 JS_2015_1 Hazardous Combination of Risks in South Bellevue: The Seattle Fault, The Olympic Pipeline, and PSE’s “Energize Eastside” Power Transmission Line Rev. 1, 6/2/2015 SUMMARY The two powerline routes now being considered for PSE’s “Energize Eastside” power transmission line (“Oak” and “Willow”) share a potentially serious flaw that could increase risk to the public in an already-risky location. Both routes follow the Olympic Pipeline where it crosses the Seattle Fault near I-90 in South Bellevue. The Seattle Fault is an active earthquake fault zone that lies relatively close to the earth’s surface. Surface ruptures have occurred in past quakes along the Fault Zone, with the south side of the fault displaced upwards as high as 22 feet relative to the north side. Visual evidence of past surface ruptures has been found within 2 miles of Energize Eastside’s proposed route, with indirect evidence even closer. If surface faulting and ground displacement occur where the Olympic Pipeline crosses the Fault, there is a reasonable likelihood that the pipeline will rupture at that point. With the pipeline moving up to 13 million gallons of gasoline/jet fuel per day at pressures above 1000 PSI, any sizeable break will result in a large fuel spill and probably a major fire. Utility industry guidelines warn against large fires beneath high voltage transmission lines, as the consequences often include line damage, line breakage, and/or “flashover” of current from the pipeline to the ground. Since the O lympic Pipeline is made of steel, a flashover from a 230,000 volt / 1 gigawatt powerline to a 300-mile-long metal pipeline full of gasoline could have catastrophic consequences far beyond Bellevue’s city limits. One mystery remains regarding the routing of the Olympic Pipeline: why does it ta ke two different routes through South Bellevue? The designers of the original pipeline (completed 1965) routed it through Eastgate and Somerset (“Route Segment J”). A second pipeline was completed in 1973, primarily using the same route as the original pipeline. However, for some reason this second line bypassed the original 3-mile pipeline section that passes through Eastgate, Somerset, and the Seattle Fault. Instead, this section of the new line was routed to the west, through Factoria and along Coal Creek Parkway, re-joining the original pipeline route south of Somerset near Coal Creek. As the first indications of the Seattle Fault were noticed in late 1965, the author wonders if the second phase of the pipeline was re-routed to avoid possible fault issues discovered in the Eastgate/Somerset area. The author recommends that the Energize Eastside EIS study group retain independent consultants with experience in liquid fuel pipelines and seismic zone evaluation to study the following issues in detail: - Evaluate the likelihood of a surface rupture of the Seattle Fault where it cr osses the Olympic Pipeline(s) in Bellevue. - Determine the vulnerability of the Olympic Pipeline(s) to a surface rupture where it crosses the Fault. This should include a determination of whether the pipeline meets seismic design 2 JS_2015_1 criteria for pipelines that cross surface earthquake faults where surface displacement is known to occur. - Engage the Olympic Pipeline Company to determine if they can shed light on why the 1973 pipeline was not co-located with the 1965 pipeline as it passes through the Seattle Fault Zone in Bellevue. - Determine if there are existing regulations that direct utilities to avoid building powerlines in locations where significant risks exist from the presence of existing utilities and /or hazardous geological features. BACKGROUND: OLYMPIC PIPELINE The Olympic Pipeline is operated by BP Pipelines, and is designed to transport up to 13 million gallons of gasoline and jet fuel every day from Blaine and Anacortes, WA, towards Portland, OR 1 (with several delivery points in between). The pipeline consists of two parallel pipes (16” and 20”) operating at pressures of around 1000 PSI. The pipeline was completed in 1965 (16” line) and 1973 (20”line)2, and is buried along most of its route. Where the Olympic Pipeline crosses the Seattle Earthquake Fault Zone in south Bellevue, these two pipelines split to follow separate routes: one crossing Eastgate/Somerset from north to south (“Route Segment J”), and the other diverging from the original pipeline north of I- 90, traveling down Factoria Boulevard and Coal Creek Parkway to re-join the main pipeline route near Coal Creek (Route Segments G2, I, K2). The first phase of the Olympic Pipeline was designed in the early 1960’s before the Seattle Fault was discovered. The author has been unable to determine if any seismic design criteria were incorporated in the design of either of the two Olympic lines. BACKGROUND: THE SEATTLE FAULT The Seattle Fault is actually a network of several earthquake fault lines that run east to west, from Hood Canal, WA to around Fall City, WA. The first modern indications that the Seattle Fault exists were noticed in 1965, but it was not determined to be a major seismic danger until 1992 3. In the Bellevue/Issaquah area, the fault zone runs roughly along Interstate 90, then crosses Lake Sammamish. The Seattle Fault is considered by many to be a particularly hazardous earthquake zone due to the fact that it is a shallow, crustal fault, unlike many other local earthquake faults that are located 30+ miles underground. A map of the Seattle Fault Zone can be found in Attachment A. Geologists estimate the recurrence rate of the Seattle Fault at approximately 1000 years. The last major quake along this fault occurred approximately 1100 years ago, and resulted in several major landslides into Lake Washington3. One of these landslides, which occurred at the south end of Mercer Island, carried an entire hillside covered with large fir trees into the lake, which divers can still see today4. 1 http://www.olympicpipeline.com/ 2 Bellingham pipeline hearing minutes 3/13/2000 3 Wikipedia article Seattle Fault 4 Underwater forest video 3 JS_2015_1 Past earthquakes along the Seattle Fault have caused the earth to rupture at the surface in multiple locations. One such rupture can be seen today near Bainbridge Island, where an uplift 22’ high was created in the last earthquake 1100 years ago 5. Another surface rupture can be found in West Seattle. In South Bellevue, yet another rupture occurred, near Southeast 38th Street in Vasa Park – less than 2 miles away from the pipeline.6 Other surface ruptures have likely occurred, but have been obscured over centuries of erosion and vegetation growth. The US Geological Survey has stated that future earthquakes on the Seattle Fault will occur: “It’s a matter of not if, but when.” The Fault has been active for an estimated 40 million years, and has an estimated recurrence interval of approximately 1000 years.7 Due to its location in a heavily urbanized area with major traffic corridors, many geologists believe the Seattle Fault is a candidate for enhanced real-time seismic monitoring to attempt to quantify the risk to the public. 5 Scenario for a 6.7 magnitude quake on the Seattle Fault 6 Scenario for a 6.7 magnitude quake on the Seattle Fault 7 Scenario for a 6.7 magnitude quake on the Seattle Fault 4 JS_2015_1 COMBINING RISKS: THE OLYMPIC PIPELINE, THE SEATTLE FAULT, AND POWER TRANSMISSION LINES Pipelines located over surface earthquake faults have experienced major failures in other locations. Several examples of pipeline ruptures during earthquakes can be found. “On Jan. 17, 1994, the (magnitude 6.7) Northridge earthquake struck the San Fernando Valley in southern California. The shaking began at 4:31 in the morning. Freeways and apartment buildings collapsed, killing 57 people and injuring thousands. Buried out of sight, an old pipeline operated by the Atlantic Richfield Company tore apart at the seams. Welds failed at nine different points along a 56km stretch, including at a pumping station on the banks of the Santa Clara (River).8” One could easily envision this scenario unfolding in Bellevue where the Olympic Pipeline crosses the Seattle Fault, particularly if the earth’s surface ruptures during a quake. According to City of Bellevue testimony in a 1998 hearing: “Our consulting engineer with extensive expertise in pipelines tells us that the locations where Olympic pipeline crosses under SR 520 and I -90 are, in fact, the two most vulnerable points of the pipeline within Bellevue. This is because they are the lowest topographical points where gravity exerts the most pressur e on the pipe.”9 According to the Washington State Military Department: “The (Olympic) pipeline crosses the Seattle Fault in an area where the scenario earthquake will create several feet of displacement and where liquefiable soils exist. …If significant ground displacement occurs, pipeline rupture is expected. Consequences could be devastating – a 1999 rupture of the pipeline in Bellingham released nearly a quarter-million gallons of fuel that subsequently caught fire and killed three people.”10 Many Washington residents remember the disaster that struck in Bellingham, WA, caused by a breach in the Olympic Pipeline which resulted in deaths. On June 10, 1999, a valve failure caused the Olympic Pipeline to rupture, allowing 229,000 gallons of gasoline from the pipeline to flow into Whatcom Creek. The gasoline traveled down the creek for 1.5 miles, ignited, and created a 1.5 -mile-long wall of fire 200’ high. Three boys playing near the creek were incinerated. The flames from the gasoline reached a temperature of 2000 degrees, with the smoke from the conflagration reaching 30,000 feet.11 8 Frazer River spill article 9 Bellingham pipeline hearing minutes 3/13/2000 10 Scenario for a 6.7 magnitude quake on the Seattle Fault 11 Historylink.org Bellingham Pipeline fire 5 JS_2015_1 Olympic Pipeline fire, Bellingham, June 10, 1999 Photo by Bill Pifer HYPOTHETICAL DISASTER SCENARIO (for illustration purposes only) In South Bellevue, not only does the Olympic Pipeline pose risks, but the combination of the Seattle Fault (a shallow earthquake fault), the 50-year-old Olympic Pipeline, and an older 115,000 volt PSE transmission line have the potential to compound tragedy (even before considering PSE’s prop osed Energize Eastside new 1 GW transmission line). For example: At the northern base of Somerset hill, the following can be found in close proximity: the Seattle Fault, the Olympic Pipeline, PSE’s existing 115,000 volt transmission line (which uses the same route as the pipeline), Sunset Creek (which runs east-west at the base of Somerset Hill), Tyee Middle School, and Edgebrook Swim and Tennis Club. (See Exhibit B for a map of this area.) Consider the following scenario at this location:  During a swim meet at Edgebrook, an earthquake along the Seattle Fault ruptures the Olympic pipeline at the base of Somerset Hill, spilling 250,000 gallons of gasoline into Sunset Creek.  The old PSE 115,000 volt transmission line breaks due to the earthquake, and falls to the ground near the creek.  The power line ignites the gasoline, causing a wall of flame to travel down the creek.  Edgebrook Swim and Tennis Club (which is next to the creek) is engulfed in flames, trapping those inside.  Another break in the pipeline 100 yards north is ignited directly adjacent to Tyee Middle School, trapping 400 children and their teachers inside.  A third rupture occurs where the pipeline crosses beneath I-90 (about ¼ mile north of Tyee Middle School) and also ignites, engulfing the freeway in flames, blocking all traffic (including emergency responders). All accesses from Seattle to points east of Bellevue via I -90 are blocked. “ENERGIZE EASTSIDE” ADDS MORE RISKS None of the above scenarios involve PSE’s proposed “Energize Eastside” transmission line. As currently proposed, this line will be a 1 gigawatt (1,000,000 KW), 230,000 volt line running from Woodinville to Renton, WA. (1 gigawatt is approximately the amount of power produced by a large nuclear power 6 JS_2015_1 plant, and is roughly equivalent to Seattle City Light’s entire average demand.12 The average home uses 2 to 5 KW.) Both of the proposed routes for the new Energize Eastside project are routed above the Olympic Pipeline where it crosses the Seattle Fault. The Olympic Pipeline actually consists of two pipelines. These two pipelines follow two different routes through South Bellevue where they cross the Seattle Fault. By coincidence, PSE has chosen these very two routes as their finalists for Energize Eastside, exposing both of them to the risk of fire from a burning pipeline fractured during a seismic event. There are at least four potential disaster scenarios that this new Energize Eastside PSE 1,000,000 KW transmission line could add at this already dangerous location: 1.) Scenario #1: The new electrical transmission line breaks during an earthquake and falls to the ground, causing damage and/or injury. (This is probably the least likely of these events.) 2.) Scenario #2: The Olympic Pipeline ruptures during an earthquake. The existing PSE 115,000 volt transmission falls and ignites the spilled fuel. A 200’ wall of smoke and 2000 degree flames from the burning pipeline rises to engulf the new Energize Eastside PSE 1,000,000 KW power lines, causing the conductors to heat up, weaken, and break. The falling power line wires land on trees and buildings below, causing damage and/or injury. (A variant of this scenario would involve the powerline becoming damaged but not breaking, which could require deactivation and replacement of the powerline.) 3.) Scenario #3: The 200’ wall of smoke and flames from the burning Olympic Pipeline rises to engulf the new Energize Eastside power line and causes it to “flash -over”, delivering a massive short circuit to the earth below. “Flashover” is a known phenomenon in the utility industry, and has been known to occur where wildfires cause large amounts of smoke to billow up to overhead high voltage transmission lines. In a flashover incident, the electric current flowing in the power line finds a new path to ground through the smoke and flames, using it to conduct electricity.13 If anywhere near the 1 gigawatt capacity of the proposed PSE line was delivered to the earth below via flashover, anything in its path could be destroyed. It may also be possible that this surge of electricity would strike the metal pipeline and travel along it, igniting even more gasoline and jet fuel along the pipeline route. According to the Bonneville Power Authority, one of the nations’ largest operators of high -voltage transmission lines: “Smoke and hot gases from a large fire can create a conductive path for electricity. When a fire is burning under a power line, electricity could arc from the wire, through the smoke and to the ground, endangering people and objects near the arc……large fires near or around power lines can damages the lines and cause power outages.”14 12 Seattle City Light Wikipedia article 13 BPA Document DOE/BP–3804 14 BPA Document DOE/BP–3804 7 JS_2015_1 Scenario #4: The Olympic Pipeline is damaged during installation of the new Energize Eastside power transmission line, resulting in a leak and fire. (Damage caused by third party construction is by far the leading cause of pipeline leaks.15) The fire damages the powerline and causes a flashover event, resulting in damage on the ground. Perhaps these kind of potential events demonstrate why the Olympic Pipeline Company has expressed their preference for Energize Eastside transmission line routes that do not follow the pipeline route. A 50-YEAR-OLD MYSTERY One mystery remains regarding the routing of the Olympic Pipeline: why does it take two differen t routes through South Bellevue? The designers of the original pipeline (completed in 1965) routed it through Eastgate and Somerset (“Route Segment J”). A second pipeline was completed in 1973, which for most of its length used the same route as the original pipeline. However, this second pipeline for some reason bypassed the 3-mile section that passes through Eastgate, Somerset, and the Seattle Fault. Instead, the new line was routed to the west, through Factoria and along Coal Creek Parkway, re-joining the original pipeline route south of Somerset near Coal Creek. Since the first indications of the Seattle Fault came to light in late 1965, the author wonders if the second phase of the pipeline was re -routed to avoid faults in the Eastgate/Somerset area. The author recommends that the EIS study group engage Olympic Pipeline to determine if their records show why this route choice was made for the second pipeline (which still crosses the Seattle Fault). This information could influence the final selection of the Energize Eastside powerline route. RISKS TO THE UTILITY PSE has a vested interest in the reliability of this proposed new powerline, which is being built to add redundancy to the grid in an area where power demand is projected to increase. One event that could threaten the grid in this region is a large regional earthquake that causes local PSE generation assets in the area to trip offline. However, if studies determine that the new powerline is also threatened by this same type of event, it is debatable whether it accomplishes the goal of increasing redundancy in the aftermath of an earthquake. POTENTIAL REGULATORY ISSUES It is possible that Federal guidelines or industry regulations exist that would direct the designers of the Energize Eastside transmission line to avoid hazardous locations such as this one. While the author was unable to determine if such rules exist when this document was written, these should be fully explored before a permit is issued. 15 Bellingham pipeline hearing minutes 3/13/2000 8 JS_2015_1 RECOMMENDED ACTIONS The author recommends that a moratorium on the Olympic Pipeline route be established until the EIS study group is able to retain independent consultants with pipeline and seismic experience to study the following issues in detail: - Evaluate the likelihood of a surface rupture of the Seattle Fault where it cro sses the Olympic Pipeline(s) in Bellevue when the next quake occurs along the Fault. - Ascertain the vulnerability of the Olympic Pipeline(s) to a surface rupture where it crosses the Fault. This should include a determination of whether the pipeline meets seismic design criteria for pipelines that cross surface earthquake faults where surface displacement is known to occur. - Engage the Olympic Pipeline Company to determine if they can shed light on why the 1973 pipeline was not co-located with the 1965 pipeline as it passes through the Seattle Fault Zone in Bellevue - Determine if there are existing regulations that direct utilities to avoid building powerlines in locations where significant risks exist from the presence of existing utilities and /or hazardous geological features. CONCLUSION South Bellevue already faces multiple catastrophic risk scenarios due to the presence of the Seattle Fault, the Olympic Pipeline, PSE’s existing 115 KV power line, Interstate 90, and other thoroughfares, schools, and creeks in the fault zone. Locating a new 1 gigawatt power line above an older gasoline pipeline where it crosses a known surface earthquake fault seems like a poor decision when other route options exist. Prudent disaster mitigation suggests that a different powerline route be used that does not increase the risk to the public, as these routes do . A moratorium on this route should be established until appropriate engineering evaluations are completed to quantify the risk to the public. The author also encourages the reader to learn more about the Seattle Fault, with the goal of developing a personal disaster survival plan. The State of Washington document titled “Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 earthquake on the Seattle Fault” provides an excellent overview of the scope of such an event. ABOUT THE AUTHOR James Sweet, PE is a retired engineer who moved to South Bellevue with his family in 1960. Jim grew up in Newport Hills, and attended Newport Hills Elementary, Tyee Middle School, Ringdall Middle School, Newport High School, and the University of Washington, graduating with a degree in Mechanical Engineering. Jim presently lives in South Bellevue, has many friends in the area, and wants them to be aware of the risks lying beneath our feet.